El Salvador Economic Outlook
March 12, 2019The economy likely gained speed in Q4 2018 as reflected by the monthly economic activity index showing a year-on-year acceleration in the quarter, led by growth in retail, construction and financial activities. Moving to Q1 2019, available data appears to paint a mixed picture: While merchandise exports contracted year-on-year in January for the third consecutive month, healthy family remittances growth in January should have continued to drive private consumption. Moreover, in early March the U.S. Department of Homeland Security extended temporary protected status until 2 January 2020 for El Salvador, boding well for remittances and private consumption this year.
El Salvador Economic GrowthGrowth is seen decelerating in 2019, as elevated household debt and a slowdown in the U.S. drags on private consumption growth. Nevertheless, the TPS extension will likely support family remittances, while past structural reforms should support private-sector activity. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.
El Salvador Economy Data
5 years of El Salvador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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