Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

In the first quarter of fiscal year 2019, which runs from July 2018 to June 2019, the annual economic growth rate moderated slightly from the previous quarter’s multi-year high. The largest contributions to growth in Q1 came from the natural gas, wholesale and retail, agriculture, and telecommunications sectors, in descending order. Higher inflation, a small uptick in the unemployment rate and slower industrial production growth likely weighed on growth, however. Meanwhile, the second quarter got off to a rocky start in October, with business activity in the non-oil private sector contracting for the second consecutive month and at a faster pace than in September. More encouragingly, the IMF is close to making a further USD 2 billion of financial assistance available to Egypt and praised the government for recent reform efforts on 31 October.

Egypt Economic Growth

This fiscal year should see solid economic growth thanks to higher government investment spending, rising natural gas production and an improving regulatory environment. However, large fiscal imbalances will weigh on economic prospects. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 5.2% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% again in FY 2020.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,1173,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.94.44.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.34.43.14.64.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.41.78.611.211.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.11.7
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.1-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1113-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.711.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.511.111.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.7518.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7111.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-15.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-36.6
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.721.7
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.458.3
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.915.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.41.5
International Reserves (USD)17.115.416.524.337.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.015.114.416.733.7

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield18.050.0 %Dec 11
Exchange Rate17.910.0 %Dec 11
Stock Market1,2380.53 %Dec 11

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