Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

The economy has made good progress so far in the 2019 fiscal year, which began in July. In August, operating conditions in the non-oil private sector improved for the second consecutive month and at a faster pace than in July. This was due to increased new business inflows, from both domestic and foreign sources. Moreover, output stabilized following contractions in recent months. This comes after annual economic growth in April–June (the last three months of FY 2018) remained at the multi-year high recorded in January–March, supported by increased investment and exports. Meanwhile, in a boost to future exports, on 19 September the governments of Egypt and Cyprus agreed to build an underwater pipeline linking the vast gas reserves located in Cypriot waters with Egypt’s underutilized LNG export facilities.

Egypt Economic Growth

In FY 2019 economic growth is expected to remain robust. Increased government investment spending, an improved regulatory environment, a weaker pound and construction activity related to the building of the new capital city should boost activity. However, large fiscal imbalances and the higher price of oil will weigh on prospects. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 5.2% in FY 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.1% in FY 2020.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,1173,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.94.44.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.34.43.14.64.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.41.78.611.211.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.11.7
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.1-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1113-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.711.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.511.111.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.7518.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7111.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-15.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-36.6
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.721.7
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.458.3
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.915.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.41.5
International Reserves (USD)17.115.416.524.337.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.015.114.416.733.7

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield18.110.0 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate17.910.0 %Oct 18
Stock Market1,2950.53 %Oct 18

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