Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Economic growth ticked up in January–March from the prior period. While details are not yet available, higher government consumption likely supported the expansion, as reflected by the government’s fiscal accounts which show spending rose sharply in July–March compared to the same period a year earlier. Fixed investment also likely increased, given a large chunk of the government’s extra spending went on public investments. In addition, higher public wages, a lower unemployment rate and a moderation in inflation should have buoyed private spending. More recently, the non-oil private sector PMI rose above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction in April for the first time in eight months. Meanwhile, on 17 May, the IMF announced it would shortly release the remaining USD 2 billion of the Egyptian government’s USD 12 billion financial support program.

Egypt Economic Growth

The economy is seen accelerating slightly next fiscal year, which starts in July, primarily due to higher private and government consumption, while fixed investment is projected to continue growing rapidly. Still-fragile government finances, an uncertain global trading environment and internal security problems threaten the outlook, however. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 5.5% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% again in FY 2021.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,1173,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.94.44.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.34.43.14.64.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.41.78.611.211.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.11.7
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.1-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1113-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.711.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.511.111.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.7518.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7111.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-15.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-36.6
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.721.7
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.458.3
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.915.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.41.5
International Reserves (USD)17.115.416.524.337.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.015.114.416.733.7

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield16.050.0 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate16.760.0 %Jun 13
Stock Market1,3510.53 %Jun 13

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