Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The economy grew at a strong but unchanged pace in the second quarter of fiscal year 2019—which covered October to December 2018—following a small slowdown in the first quarter. Although comprehensive data is outstanding, this came on the heels of increased investment. Moreover, the government expects unemployment to have fallen in the same period, which, combined with higher public-sector pay, likely supported private consumption growth. Meanwhile, on 25 January the IMF paved the way for the disbursement of a USD 2 billion loan payment to Egypt, which would bring total disbursements to USD 11 billion out of a possible USD 12 billion under the three-year financial support program agreed in November 2016. On the political front, around 120 of the 596 lawmakers in parliament submitted a petition on 3 February to extend the presidential term to six years from four years, which would leave President el-Sisi in office until a minimum of 2024 instead of 2022. If the bill garners sufficient support in parliament, this would require a change to the country's constitution and, thus, a national referendum.

Egypt Economic Growth

Economic growth should be robust this fiscal year thanks to higher government investment spending, rising natural gas production and an improving regulatory environment. However, despite moderating in recent years, fiscal imbalances continue to weigh on economic prospects. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 5.3% in FY 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in FY 2020.

Egypt Economy Data

Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,1173,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.11.7
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.1-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1113-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.711.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.511.111.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7111.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-15.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-36.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.458.3
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.915.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)17.115.416.524.337.0
External Debt (% of GDP)

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Egypt Facts

Bond Yield17.750.0 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate17.540.0 %Feb 14
Stock Market1,4360.53 %Feb 14

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