Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

November 6, 2018

Economic activity gained momentum in the third quarter, accelerating markedly in August thanks to a notable boost in oil production, following weak growth in H1. Prospects for the petroleum sector remain upbeat with USD 1.6 billion worth of private investment contracts signed on 5 October for the development of six oil fields. Moreover, the government has indicated plans to continue offering areas for oil and gas exploration through an auction later this year and next. Consultations have already ensued with neighboring Peru to jointly explore two oil fields at the border of the two countries. In addition, household consumption propelled by still-strong private credit growth in Q3 continued to power growth amid muted inflationary pressures.

Ecuador Economic Growth

Cuts to public spending as the government attempts to strengthen its fiscal account are expected to drag on growth next year. Weaker private consumption dynamics, owing to a moderation in private credit growth and an expected rise in price pressures, will also likely weigh on the growth outlook. Tighter global financial conditions, meanwhile, pose downside risks, due to the dollarized economy’s heavy reliance on external financing. Met the why particular panelists project GDP growth slowing to 1.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.4% in 2020.

Ecuador Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.816.016.316.516.8
GDP per capita (USD)6,0306,3476,0995,9666,143
GDP (USD bn)95.111299.398.6113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.03.80.1-1.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.13.50.3-3.34.7
Investment (annual variation in %)11.42.3-6.2-8.1-0.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.23.7-0.4-2.52.1
Unemployment Rate4.04.34.35.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.9-9.6-6.2-7.4-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.029.633.038.745.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.73.73.41.1-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.73.64.01.70.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.1-0.71.71.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.535.185.145.124.95
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.0-0.5-2.11.5-0.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.5-2.11.4-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.9-2.0-3.20.5-0.9
Exports (USD billion)24.825.718.316.819.1
Imports (USD billion)25.827.721.516.320.0
Exports (annual variation in %)4.63.5-28.7-8.413.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.57.6-22.4-24.122.6
International Reserves (USD)4.44.02.54.32.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.623.627.634.138.2

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Nov 13
Stock Market1,3950.17 %Nov 13

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