Ecuador Economic Outlook
September 12, 2018Although overall economic activity accelerated throughout the second quarter, oil production contracted in the first six months of the year and by a greater magnitude than seen in the same period in 2017. The drop reflects Ecuador’s oil agreement with OPEC to cut output. While exports decelerated in June, imports recorded a sharper fall, easing the external sector’s drag on growth. Private sector credit expanded at a more moderate pace in Q2, however, dropping to a 13-month low in June. While the government has taken steps towards achieving greater fiscal consolidation, increased financing constraints owing to a rapidly rising government debt load and growing interest rate burden prompted Fitch Ratings to downgrade Ecuador’s credit rating from B to B- on 17 August. In efforts to narrow the government spending gap, the country recently secured a USD 1.1 billion loan bundle, which includes a USD 500 million repurchase agreement with Goldman Sachs.
Ecuador Economic GrowthGrowth this year will be supported by higher oil prices and robust investment in the oil sector. However, the economy is expected to decelerate in the short- to medium-term, owing to reduced oil output and in part due to the government’s austerity measures, which will likely restrain economic activity. Private credit growth will also likely moderate and dent the pace of expansion in private consumption. Met the why particular panelists project GDP growth slowing to 1.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.2% in 2019.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||25,000||0.0 %||Sep 24|
|Stock Market||1,394||0.17 %||Sep 24|
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Ecuador Economic News
September 6, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.27% over the previous month in August after coming in flat in July.
August 14, 2018
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity increased 3.8% over the same month of the previous year in June, accelerating from the revised 2.9% year-on-year rise in May (previously reported: +3.8% year-on-year) and marking the best print in since November 2014.
August 6, 2018
Consumer prices came in flat over the previous month in July, contrasting a 0.27% month-on-month decline in June.
July 18, 2018
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity increased 3.8% over the same month of the previous year in May, marking a faster expansion than the revised 2.6% year-on-year rise in April (previously reported: +1.7% year-on-year).
July 6, 2018
Consumer prices declined 0.27% over the previous month in June, marking a bigger drop than the revised 0.18% month-on-month fall in May.