Ecuador Economic Outlook
January 15, 2019The economy entered the final quarter on a promising note, with economic activity growing at an accelerated pace from the third quarter’s mild upturn in growth. Overall activity sped up in October, buttressed by a tepid increase in oil exports despite a contraction in petroleum production in the January–October period as the country’s state-owned oil company Petroamazonas EP continued to cut output. However, while still strong, the trend of the past three quarters suggests that the inflow of remittances continued to weaken into the fourth quarter. Coupled with milder credit growth, this likely curbed private consumption growth. On the fiscal front, before the close of the year, the government announced cuts to gasoline subsides and public sector salaries, aimed at reducing the fiscal gap by USD 700 million. Moreover, a USD 900 million loan secured from China in December should aid the Andean nation in financing its 2019 budget, with the IMF also possibly lending financial support.
Ecuador Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to deteriorate again in 2019, with the Met the why particular panel projecting an expansion of 0.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Government expenditure cuts, aimed at strengthening the fiscal account, will likely weigh on overall economic activity. Moreover, private consumption growth is expected to weaken on tighter credit availability and higher inflationary pressures. Risks to the outlook continue to stem from less favorable global financial conditions, owing to the dollarized economy’s heavy reliance on external financing. The panel sees GDP growth edging up to 1.3% in 2020.
Ecuador Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||25,000||0.0 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||1,419||0.17 %||Jan 21|
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Ecuador Economic News
January 18, 2019
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity gained strength for the ninth consecutive month in November, growing 5.9% over the same month of the previous year.
January 7, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.11% over the previous month in December, after declining 0.25% month-on-month in November.
January 2, 2019
Ecuador’s economy accelerated slightly in the third quarter, with annual GDP growth edging up to 1.4%, from the second quarter’s 1.2% year-on-year expansion—the slowest since Q4 2016.
December 13, 2018
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity accelerated in October, rising 4.5% over the same month of the previous year.
December 6, 2018
Consumer prices declined 0.25% over the previous month in November, after a 0.05% month-on-month fall in October.