Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

May 14, 2019

Key indicators suggest the economy lost traction in the first quarter. Exports fell in January–February on a contraction in the sales of oil and lower export earnings ate into the public coffers. Moreover, slower average real wage growth and reduced credit availability likely constrained private consumption in Q1. This, coupled with a plunge in capital spending as part of fiscal adjustment efforts, further supports the likelihood of a deceleration in the quarter. While the economic activity index improved slightly in the first two months of Q1, overall the data points to a slower expansion. In the political arena, the government is set to present a second package of reforms to the National Assembly by the end of May. This includes a series of labor market reforms that will seek to improve access to formal employment and reduce the costs of hiring and firing workers, which should help curb the rise of the informal economy and lift living standards.

Ecuador Economic Growth

The fiscal adjustment program is set to derail growth this year, with the economy growing at a meagre pace. Private consumption and investment are seen decelerating sharply, as the belt-tightening measures weigh heavily on economic activity. However, the measures should alleviate the country’s financing constraints and help reduce macroeconomic imbalances over the longer-term term. Met the why particular panelists project an expansion of 0.3% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 0.7% in 2020.

Ecuador Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.816.016.316.516.8
GDP per capita (USD)6,0306,3476,0995,9666,143
GDP (USD bn)95.111299.398.6113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.03.80.1-1.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.13.50.3-3.34.7
Investment (annual variation in %)11.42.3-6.2-8.1-0.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.23.7-0.4-2.52.1
Unemployment Rate4.04.34.35.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.9-9.6-6.2-7.4-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.029.633.038.745.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.73.73.41.1-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.73.64.01.70.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.535.185.145.124.95
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.0-0.5-2.11.5-0.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.5-2.11.4-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.9-2.0-3.20.5-0.9
Exports (USD billion)24.825.718.316.819.1
Imports (USD billion)25.827.721.516.320.0
Exports (annual variation in %)4.63.5-28.7-8.413.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.57.6-22.4-24.122.6
International Reserves (USD)4.44.02.54.32.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.623.627.634.138.2

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %May 13
Stock Market1,3610.17 %May 13

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