Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

March 12, 2019

Ecuador finally struck a deal with the IMF at the end of February for a USD 4.2 billion Extended Fund Facility, that will support the economy over the next three years. The package forms part of a wider credit line of more than USD 11 billion from other multilateral lenders, which should help alleviate the dollarized economy’s liquidity shortfalls and revive lackluster growth while slashing spending. The funds will be front-loaded, that should enable the cash-strapped nation to meet its financing needs this year without having to tap into financial markets. The agreement was welcomed by the markets and spurred a rally in the country’s sovereign bonds. While national accounts data for Q4 2018 has yet to be released, the economy’s performance likely remained subdued in the quarter as tighter credit availability weighed on private consumption and investment. Persistently downbeat consumer sentiment has also curbed household spending.

Ecuador Economic Growth

While financial assistance from the IMF should help address structural imbalances within the economy and bring the external debt burden onto a more sustainable path, growth is expected to lose more ground this year as spending cuts and tighter credit conditions curb domestic demand. Government spending is set to decelerate sharply on the planned austerity measures, while private consumption growth will likely cool on reduced household incomes. Met the why particular panelists project an expansion of 0.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.2% in 2020.

Ecuador Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.816.016.316.516.8
GDP per capita (USD)6,0306,3476,0995,9666,143
GDP (USD bn)95.111299.398.6113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.03.80.1-1.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.13.50.3-3.34.7
Investment (annual variation in %)11.42.3-6.2-8.1-0.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.23.7-0.4-2.52.1
Unemployment Rate4.04.34.35.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.9-9.6-6.2-7.4-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.029.633.038.745.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.73.73.41.1-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.73.64.01.70.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.535.185.145.124.95
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.0-0.5-2.11.5-0.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.5-2.11.4-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.9-2.0-3.20.5-0.9
Exports (USD billion)24.825.718.316.819.1
Imports (USD billion)25.827.721.516.320.0
Exports (annual variation in %)4.63.5-28.7-8.413.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.57.6-22.4-24.122.6
International Reserves (USD)4.44.02.54.32.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.623.627.634.138.2

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Mar 11
Stock Market1,1150.17 %Mar 11

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