DR Congo Economic Forecast

DR Congo Economic Outlook

October 16, 2018

Political unrest has been intensifying ahead of the long-delayed 23 December elections in which President Joseph Kabila announced he will not run. The list of presidential candidates, released in September, vetoed a number of popular hopefuls but did include two major challengers to Emmanuel Shadary, the Kabila loyalist. Although it remains to be seen whether the opposition will eventually unite around a single candidate, analysts have not ruled out the prospect of bloodshed should the fractious political landscape continue to deteriorate. Meanwhile, in the run-up to the vote, economic activity has been firming on the strength of the extractive sectors, which have been bolstered by the strong global economy.

DR Congo Economic Growth

Notwithstanding tail-end political and regulatory risks that could threaten the near-term economic recovery, external demand for key export commodities is expected to continue underpinning growth next year. Moreover, sharply lower inflation in recent months bodes well for stronger demand-driven gains. Met the why particular analysts have thus far priced-in a peaceful transition of power, and see growth at 4.0% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2020.

DR Congo Economy Data

Population (million)77.079.381.784.186.7
GDP per capita (USD)424453464441434
GDP (USD bn)32.735.937.937.137.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)2.00.1-0.2-1.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.017.516.116.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)930.3911.0917.01,1651,592
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)922.1922.2918.3963.51,459
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.5-4.8-3.9-3.6-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.1-1.7-1.5-1.3-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.8-0.4-0.3-0.2-  
Exports (USD billion)11.612.311.311.0-  
Imports (USD billion)11.812.711.611.2-  
Exports (annual variation in %)32.86.1-16.5-3.0-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.617.6-16.8-3.5-  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)18.915.414.213.7-  

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DR Congo Facts

Exchange Rate1,643-0.78 %Oct 18
Stock Market0.40.0 %Oct 18

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