DR Congo Economic Forecast

DR Congo Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

Economic activity firmed up in the first quarter on the back of the extractive sectors, largely thanks to a strong global economy and elevated commodity prices. Moreover, solid advances in the services sectors came in line with this year’s strong improvement in business sentiment. Despite these gains, the economy faces significant political risk ahead of December’s long-delayed elections. Joseph Kabila, the deeply unpopular longtime president, has yet to announce whether he will run again—which he is constitutionally barred from doing. The international community has begun to apply pressure; UN officials have been in talks with Kabila, while the U.S. has agreed to tie new investment to free and fair elections.

DR Congo Economic Growth

External demand for key export commodities should bolster growth this year. That said, crippling political uncertainty is likely to rattle the fragile economy; a third Kabila presidency would preserve stability, but status quo politics would hinder growth prospects. Meanwhile, rampant inflation will continue hammering consumers. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 3.3% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2019.

DR Congo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)77.079.381.784.186.7
GDP per capita (USD)424453464441434
GDP (USD bn)32.735.937.937.137.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.59.56.92.43.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)2.00.1-0.2-1.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.017.516.116.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.21.21.85.953.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.002.002.007.0020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)930.3911.0917.01,1651,592
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)922.1922.2918.3963.51,459
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.5-4.8-3.9-3.6-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.1-1.7-1.5-1.3-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.8-0.4-0.3-0.2-  
Exports (USD billion)11.612.311.311.0-  
Imports (USD billion)11.812.711.611.2-  
Exports (annual variation in %)32.86.1-16.5-3.0-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.617.6-16.8-3.5-  
International Reserves (USD)1.71.61.40.80.8
External Debt (% of GDP)18.915.414.213.7-  

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DR Congo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1,638-0.78 %Aug 15
Stock Market0.40.0 %Aug 15

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