DR Congo Economic Outlook
October 16, 2018Political unrest has been intensifying ahead of the long-delayed 23 December elections in which President Joseph Kabila announced he will not run. The list of presidential candidates, released in September, vetoed a number of popular hopefuls but did include two major challengers to Emmanuel Shadary, the Kabila loyalist. Although it remains to be seen whether the opposition will eventually unite around a single candidate, analysts have not ruled out the prospect of bloodshed should the fractious political landscape continue to deteriorate. Meanwhile, in the run-up to the vote, economic activity has been firming on the strength of the extractive sectors, which have been bolstered by the strong global economy.
DR Congo Economic GrowthNotwithstanding tail-end political and regulatory risks that could threaten the near-term economic recovery, external demand for key export commodities is expected to continue underpinning growth next year. Moreover, sharply lower inflation in recent months bodes well for stronger demand-driven gains. Met the why particular analysts have thus far priced-in a peaceful transition of power, and see growth at 4.0% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2020.
DR Congo Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||424||453||464||441||434|
|GDP (USD bn)||32.7||35.9||37.9||37.1||37.6|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.5||9.5||6.9||2.4||3.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||2.0||0.1||-0.2||-1.0||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||20.0||17.5||16.1||16.8||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.2||1.2||1.8||5.9||53.5|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||930.3||911.0||917.0||1,165||1,592|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||2.00||2.00||2.00||7.00||20.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||922.1||922.2||918.3||963.5||1,459|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-9.5||-4.8||-3.9||-3.6||-3.1|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.1||-1.7||-1.5||-1.3||-1.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||0.8||-0.4||-0.3||-0.2||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||11.6||12.3||11.3||11.0||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||11.8||12.7||11.6||11.2||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||32.8||6.1||-16.5||-3.0||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||24.6||17.6||-16.8||-3.5||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||1.7||1.6||1.4||0.8||0.8|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||18.9||15.4||14.2||13.7||-|
5 years of DR Congo economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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DR Congo Facts
|Exchange Rate||1,643||-0.78 %||Oct 18|
|Stock Market||0.4||0.0 %||Oct 18|
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