Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

The economy continued to boom in the fourth quarter according to preliminary data, rounding off an impressive 2018 during which growth was likely by far the highest in the CENAM region. Q4’s performance was underpinned by the construction and services sectors, with construction benefiting from ongoing projects in the private residential housing, tourism and energy sectors, and services from solid credit growth and low price pressures. Over 2018 as a whole, flash Central Bank figures point to healthy growth in exports, remittances and tourism revenue. This is largely thanks to strong dynamics in the U.S. economy, the Dominican Republic’s key trading partner. On the political scene, the government recently announced its intention to sell a stake in the new Punta Catalina power plant, which could provide a one-off boost to public coffers. The plant, when fully operational, will significantly increase domestic electricity production.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

Growth will likely soften this year on easing momentum in the U.S. and tough prior-year comparatives. However, strong fixed investment and private consumption should support the economy, which will continue to perform well compared to regional peers. Downside risks include tighter global financial conditions and vulnerability to severe weather conditions. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 5.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 4.6%.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.89.911.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)6,4116,6936,9037,1887,475
GDP (USD bn)62.766.268.972.476.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.97.67.06.64.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.63.85.34.84.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.512.320.611.40.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.814.88.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate15.014.514.013.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.3-2.70.0-2.8-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.036.035.136.938.9
Money (annual variation in %)11.711.511.611.011.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.91.62.31.74.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.00.81.63.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.256.255.005.505.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)42.6944.2845.5346.3447.80
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)41.7143.4844.9845.9347.31
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.1-3.3-1.9-1.1-0.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-2.2-1.3-0.8-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.4-7.4-7.5-7.6-7.6
Exports (USD billion)9.49.99.49.811.1
Imports (USD billion)16.817.316.917.417.7
Exports (annual variation in %)5.55.0-4.64.22.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.82.8-2.12.91.7
International Reserves (USD)4.74.95.36.06.8
External Debt (% of GDP)38.239.738.738.7-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate50.410.80 %Jan 30

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