Denmark Economic Forecast

Denmark Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Economic momentum appears to have remained solid in the final quarter of the year, following a strong showing in Q3. Export growth accelerated in November from October’s recovery on robust pharmaceutical shipments, contributing to a higher current account surplus in the month. The improvement was corroborated by the manufacturing sector, with the PMI inching higher in December on stronger production, and Q4’s average PMI reading surpassing that of the prior quarter. Nevertheless, the third consecutive decline in new orders in December spells softer demand conditions moving into 2019. Turning to consumer spending, the bedrock of the economy, retail sales growth was robust in Q4, likely underpinned by strong real wage growth. Consumer confidence, however, was less upbeat in Q4, although it did improve for the first time in six months in January.

Denmark Economic Growth

The Danish economy should enjoy solid growth in 2019, provided the global economy doesn’t markedly slowdown and/or endure a hard Brexit. Economic growth is expected to be more balanced this year as the contribution from exports improves after a lackluster performance in 2018. Moreover, private consumption should continue to support the expansion thanks to a growing labor force and accommodative monetary conditions. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to increase 1.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.6% in 2020.

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Denmark Facts

Bond Yield0.14-1.54 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate6.50-0.57 %Jan 30
Stock Market929-0.39 %Jan 30

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