Cyprus Economic Forecast

Cyprus Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

The economy seemingly started this year on solid footing, following a robust performance in 2017 that marked the strongest expansion in nearly ten years. Economic activity in Q1 was buoyed by the sustained strength of the external sector, with double-digit growth in exports. Furthermore, the unemployment rate fell to single-digit territory in February for the first time since January 2012. This, coupled with growing monetary stability and improved consumer confidence, likely spurred household consumption in the first quarter of 2018. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings upgraded Cyprus’ credit rating from BB to BB+ with a positive outlook, citing the robust economic recovery and prudent fiscal policy.

Cyprus Economic Growth

A sustained improvement in the state of public finances and fast-expanding tourism and construction industries should help maintain momentum this year. Nevertheless, the high level of indebtedness in the private sector and a large stock of nonperforming loans continue to endanger the economy’s recovery in the medium term. Met the why particular panelists project growth of 3.5% in 2018, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2019.

Cyprus Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)20,90120,51320,82321,111-  
GDP (EUR bn)18.117.617.617.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-6.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.9-17.512.026.0-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-  
Unemployment Rate15.916.214.913.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-8.8-1.20.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)112117118118-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)-1.3-1.0-0.60.1-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.4-0.3-1.6-1.2-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.1-2.9-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.05-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.21-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.33-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.5-4.5-3.6-5.0-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.9-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.2-3.7-3.4-4.4-  

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Cyprus Facts

Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Stock Market66.0-0.44 %May 21
Stock Market66.0-0.44 %May 21

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