Croatia Economic Outlook
October 30, 2018Incoming data suggests a slight loss of momentum in the third quarter, following healthy growth through the first half of the year driven by sturdy domestic demand. After a modest rise in Q2, industrial output contracted, on average, in July–August on the back of lower production of food and metal products, pointing to a disappointing quarter for the goods-producing sector. Meanwhile, growth of retail sales cooled in the same two-month period, despite record-low unemployment and strong real wage gains, hinting at private consumption losing stride in the quarter. In the political arena, the government presented in late September to parliament a third round of tax reforms, which are set to reduce the VAT considerably on essential items and cut taxes on high-income households, potentially stimulating consumption going forward.
Croatia Economic GrowthStrong consumer spending, underpinned by further tightening of the job market and brisk real wage growth, should keep the economy growing at a solid rate next year. A highly dynamic tourism industry, which is poised to set another record for arrivals this year, should also lend further support to economic activity and contribute to maintaining a healthy current account surplus. Key downside risks to the outlook stem from rising global trade tensions and a potential slowdown in Italy or Germany, the country’s largest trading partners, any of which could bruise external demand. Met the why particular panelists project GDP growth of 2.7% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
Croatia Economy Data
5 years of Croatia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.15||0.0 %||Nov 13|
|Exchange Rate||6.58||-0.54 %||Nov 13|
|Stock Market||1,761||-0.48 %||Nov 13|
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Croatia Economic News
October 30, 2018
In September, industrial output fell 2.6% in working-day adjusted terms over the same month last year, deteriorating further from 1.0% drop recorded in August and marking the worst reading in nearly four years.
October 16, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.8%—a one-year high—from the previous month in September, following the flat reading recorded in August.
September 28, 2018
In August, industrial output fell 1.0% in working-day adjusted terms over the same month last year, deteriorating further than the 0.9% drop recorded in July. August’s dip was largely driven by a sharper decline in manufacturing output compared to the previous month.
September 14, 2018
Consumer prices were unchanged from the previous month in August, contrasting the 0.9% drop recorded in July.
September 3, 2018
In July, industrial output fell 0.9% in working-day adjusted terms over the same month last year, contrasting the 3.1% rise recorded in June. July’s dip was largely driven by a drop in manufacturing output, which had expanded in the previous month.