Cote d'Ivoire Economic Forecast

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Growth appears to have accelerated in the last quarter of 2018, fueled by sturdy domestic activity. Cocoa output rebounded in Q4, after a mid-year outbreak of swollen shoot disease dented production in Q3. Moreover, higher farmgate prices for the late-year crop, coupled with low inflation, likely bolstered household spending throughout the quarter, while fourth-quarter activity was further supported by a spike in industrial production in October 2018. On the external front, exports bounced back from Q3’s downturn, although full-year exports contracted on supply headwinds within the agricultural sector in the summer of 2018. More recently, exports rose in February on higher shipments of cocoa and oil-derived products, boding well for overall activity at the start of the year.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain strong this year, underpinned by healthy domestic activity. Private consumption should sustain its momentum, amid stable farmgate prices and a relatively weak inflationary environment. Meanwhile, favorable rainfall at the start of this month is seen boosting the April-September cocoa harvest, which would buttress exports in the process. Our panel sees growth at 7.1% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again at 6.7% in 2020.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)22.523.123.724.325.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3851,5201,3891,4811,611
GDP (USD bn)31.235.132.936.011.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.28.88.88.38.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.211.27.79.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)50.018.917.617.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate2.82.72.72.62.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.2-2.8-3.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.444.847.347.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.615.919.111.08.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.60.51.20.70.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)477.8541.8613.9628.9573.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.503.504.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)495.3497.2595.2598.4586.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.41.5-0.6-1.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.40.5-0.2-0.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.11.82.12.33.0
Exports (USD billion)13.612.512.511.612.4
Imports (USD billion)12.611.711.48.39.5
Exports (annual variation in %)26.0-8.2-0.4-15.117.5
Imports (annual variation in %)29.0-14.7-3.4-19.914.1
International Reserves (USD)4.24.54.84.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)32.126.834.430.7-  

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate581.2-1.11 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.40.0 %Apr 12

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