Cote d'Ivoire Economic Forecast

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The economy maintained its strong momentum in the third quarter (Q3: +7.7% year-on-year) on the back of sturdy domestic demand and despite volatility in commodity prices. Industrial output was upbeat as food-processing firms increased capacity in light of improving business conditions and a rising population. Agricultural production, however, lost traction as a result of an outbreak of swollen-shoot disease that took a toll on cocoa output—the country’s main export. To that effect, reduced cocoa yields, coupled with still-low prices, likely moderated external-sector gains through year-end.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

Momentum is expected to carry through into this year, underpinned by robust domestic activity and stable external sector expansion, as improved growing techniques bolster agricultural production. To that effect, exports are set to rise, on the heels of growing global demand for cocoa-made products. On the downside, political instability is expected to increase in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election. Our panel sees growth at 7.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and at 6.9% in 2020.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)22.523.123.724.325.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3851,5201,3891,4811,611
GDP (USD bn)31.235.132.936.011.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.28.88.88.38.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.211.27.79.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)50.018.917.617.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate2.82.72.72.62.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.2-2.8-3.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.444.847.347.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.615.919.111.08.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.60.51.20.70.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.503.504.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)477.8541.8613.9628.9573.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)495.3497.2595.2598.4586.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.41.5-0.6-1.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.40.5-0.2-0.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.11.82.12.33.0
Exports (USD billion)13.612.512.511.612.4
Imports (USD billion)12.611.711.48.39.5
Exports (annual variation in %)26.0-8.2-0.4-15.117.5
Imports (annual variation in %)29.0-14.7-3.4-19.914.1
International Reserves (USD)4.24.54.84.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)32.126.834.430.7-  

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate581.2-1.11 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.40.0 %Feb 14

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