Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

August 7, 2018

While growth is staging a recovery in the Colombian economy, available data indicates a moderate rate of expansion thus far. Compared to the first quarter, however, second-quarter data has been more promising: Growth in the industrial sector shot up, and retail sales accelerated in April–May amid a fall in the average rate of unemployment. Exports jumped in June, reflecting a surge in overseas sales of oil, cashing in on higher oil prices. Moreover, upturns in the manufacturing PMI in June and July, and a climb in consumer confidence to an over-three-year high in June signal more upbeat prospects. On the political front, President-Elect Iván Duque will take office on 7 August. Duque has already appointed Alberto Carrasquilla as minister of finance, who is expected to be a key figure in pushing through the tax cut bill that was at the core of his election campaign.

Colombia Economic Growth

Economic growth this year should be underpinned by higher oil prices supporting an upturn in the oil sector. Planned infrastructure projects and improved investor confidence on reduced political uncertainty should also help boost growth. Duque’s promise to cut corporate taxes could pose challenges in meeting the fiscal target, however, unless they are offset with a new source of revenues. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 2.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2019.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1167,9926,0755,8086,377
GDP (USD bn)382381293283314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.01.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.42.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-2.70.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.2
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.441.142.443.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.5-12.0-11.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.2-15.6-11.1-6.2
Exports (USD billion)58.854.936.031.837.8
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.844.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.7-34.3-11.818.9
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.02.6
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.637.742.439.6

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.860.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate3,050-0.17 %Aug 15
Stock Market11,947-0.66 %Aug 15

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