Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

First-quarter growth came in slightly above Q4 2018, thanks to a positive contribution from inventories countering weakness on the domestic and external front. Ongoing belt-tightening measures caused government spending to decelerate, which, along with a fall in fixed investment growth amid weak business sentiment, eroded the gains from a faster expansion in private consumption. Meanwhile, exports rose more softly on reduced oil sales. Going into Q2, the data is mixed. Exports bounced back in April on higher fuel shipments, while the manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory in the first two months. On the downside, households turned markedly pessimistic in April, boding ill for private spending at the outset of the quarter. In other news, Colombia received mixed signals from credit agencies on the progress of fiscal consolidation efforts: On 23 May, Moody’s upgraded the sovereign outlook to stable, while Fitch Ratings downgraded it to negative.

Colombia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to pick up this year, propelled by stronger investment activity thanks to infrastructure and oil sector projects. Fiscal tightening, however, is set to weigh on activity, while the external sector is also seen remaining in the doldrums. Risks stem from uncertainties over the pace of fiscal reform and the challenging external backdrop. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1167,9926,0755,8086,377
GDP (USD bn)382381293283314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.01.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.42.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-2.70.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.2
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.441.142.443.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.5-12.0-11.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.2-15.6-11.1-6.2
Exports (USD billion)58.854.936.031.837.8
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.844.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.7-34.3-11.818.9
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.02.6
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.637.742.439.6

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.040.0 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate3,269-0.17 %Jun 13
Stock Market12,287-0.66 %Jun 13

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