China Money March 2019

China

China: M2 and credit growth surge in March

April 12, 2019

In March, Chinese banks distributed CNY 1.69 trillion (USD 252 billion) in new yuan loans. The reading was well above both the CNY 886 billion distributed in February and market expectations of CNY 1.20 trillion. In the 12 months up to March, new yuan loans totaled CNY 17.1 trillion (12 months up to February: CNY 16.5 trillion).

Meanwhile, annual growth in M2—the broadest measure of money supply in China—jumped from February’s 8.0% to 8.6% in March. The reading overshot market expectations of an 8.2% increase and represented the highest reading in over one year.

Total social financing (TSF)—a broader measure of credit and liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments—rose from CNY 703 billion in February to CNY 2.86 trillion in March.

Met the why particular Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 8.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel also sees M2 growth of 8.6%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Money March 2019 0

Note: New yuan loans in CNY billion and year-on-year variation of M2.
Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and Met the why particular calculations.


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