Chile Economic Forecast

Chile Economic Outlook

February 12, 2019

Economic activity, a proxy release for GDP, points to growth of 4.0% in 2018, which if confirmed would have marked the best print in five years. After a somewhat sluggish Q3, the economy is expected to have gained speed in Q4. The manufacturing sector rebounded in December and the services sector grew solidly. That said, momentum is seen slowing in Q1. The mining economy is set to remain under pressure in the coming months, affected by fluctuating copper prices. Moreover, in January, consumer confidence lingered in negative territory. On a brighter note, businesses regained optimism in the same month, while the external sector began the year in vigorous fashion thanks to a surge in agricultural exports in anticipation of Chinese New Year celebrations.

Chile Economic Growth

Economic momentum is seen decelerating this year against a volatile international backdrop. Headwinds surrounding the U.S.–China trade war, coupled with slower growth in the Chinese economy, threaten to drag on global demand for copper, Chile’s largest export. On a brighter note, under-control inflation and a tighter labor market should aid moderating, albeit still strong, household spending. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 3.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Chile Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.617.818.018.218.4
GDP per capita (USD)15,79814,67713,65913,75215,118
GDP (USD bn)279262246250278
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.01.82.31.31.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.52.72.12.22.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.2-4.8-0.3-0.7-1.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.22.81.81.62.1
Unemployment Rate5.96.46.26.56.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-1.6-2.1-2.7-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.715.017.321.023.6
Money (annual variation in %)11.28.211.611.14.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.64.42.72.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.84.44.43.82.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.503.003.503.502.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)8.4-22.89.6-2.815.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)525.5606.9708.6669.8615.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)495.6570.8654.6676.5648.9
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.0-1.6-2.2-1.4-1.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-4.3-5.5-3.5-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.06.53.45.47.9
Exports (USD billion)76.875.162.060.769.2
Imports (USD billion)74.868.658.655.361.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.7-2.2-17.3-2.114.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-8.2-14.6-5.711.9
International Reserves (USD)41.111.438.611.539.0
External Debt (% of GDP)48.958.265.466.765.3

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Chile Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.36-0.44 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate664.50.05 %Feb 14
Stock Market27,213-0.67 %Feb 14

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