Chile Economic Outlook
October 9, 2018The economy appears to have performed well in Q3, albeit softening from the outstanding domestic demand-led outturn in Q2. Average economic activity came in below the Q2 level in July and August, reflecting a more challenging external environment and worsening labor market dynamics at home. Furthermore, average business sentiment deteriorated in Q3, although September saw a notable improvement compared to August, largely due to a surge in confidence in the mining sector. In a similar vein, average third-quarter consumer confidence was slightly below the average for Q2, against the backdrop of a weakening peso which weighed on consumers’ views regarding both their current and future economic situations. Nevertheless, despite the fall, retail sales jumped to a five-month high in August, signaling sustained reliance on household consumption. On the external front, exports fell marginally in August—the first contraction in 18 months—amid sustained copper price weakness and waning regional demand for Chilean exports.
Chile Economic GrowthSolid domestic demand should underpin growth next year, although it is expected to decelerate slightly. A stable inflationary environment will bolster private consumption, which, coupled with strong investment growth, should drive growth in 2019. However, the likely worsening of the external backdrop—mostly due to weaker copper prices and regional instabilities—remains a major downside risk to the outlook next year. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 4.0% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Chile Economy Data
5 years of Chile economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.93||-0.44 %||Oct 18|
|Exchange Rate||676.2||0.05 %||Oct 18|
|Stock Market||26,118||-0.67 %||Oct 18|
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Chile Economic News
October 8, 2018
Copper prices stabilized somewhat in recent weeks after a near three-month long decline through to the beginning of September.
October 8, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.3% from the previous month in September, up slightly from August’s 0.2% increase.
October 5, 2018
Economic activity rose 3.2% year-on-year in August, marginally down from the previous month’s 3.3% increase, according to the IMACEC monthly economic activity index published by the Central Bank of Chile.
October 4, 2018
The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index (IPEC, Índice de Percepción de la Economía) dipped to 46.1 points in September, from 47.0 points in August, marking the third consecutive month of deteriorating sentiment.
October 3, 2018
The business confidence index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza Empresarial) published by ICARE and the Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez rose from 50.8 points in August—the lowest reading so far this year—to 54.8 points in September, marking the highest print in three months.