Canada Economic Forecast
December 20, 2018The economy lost momentum in the third quarter of the year, with the quarter-on-quarter SAAR expansion decelerating notably from the second quarter. The slowdown came on the back of a near halving in private consumption growth as consumers held back their spending on durable goods. Moreover, government consumption slowed in Q3, while fixed investment decreased at the fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by lower business investment. The economy’s bright spot came from the external sector, which delivered the largest contribution to the headline reading in just under two years. However, this was only due to a significant decrease in imports. Turning to the fourth quarter, recent data appears more encouraging. The PMI reading for the private sector remained well in expansionary territory in November, and, in the same month, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since the present-day records began in 1976.
Canada Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected to continue moderating next year. Rising interest rates and slower job growth could dampen household spending and residential investment. With that said, the USMCA will reduce uncertainty surrounding trade with the U.S. and, in turn, support mainstay export industries. Met the why particular panelists estimate growth of 2.0% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.
Canada Economy Data
5 years of Canada economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.03||1.00 %||Jan 18|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||0.15 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||15,354||0.23 %||Jan 21|
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Canada Economic News
January 18, 2019
Seasonally-adjusted consumer prices increased 0.2% from a month earlier in December, contrasting November’s 0.1% fall (previously reported: -0.2% month-on-month).
January 14, 2019
House prices edged down 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis in December, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index (November: -0.3% month-on-month s.a.).
January 9, 2019
Housing starts on a seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) basis abated to 213,419 units in December, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
January 9, 2019
On 9 January, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75%, as widely expected by market analysts. The decision to hold was reinforced by the recent fall in oil prices, the prospect of a global economic slowdown and uncertainty over global trade policy.
January 7, 2019
The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), prepared by the Ricard Ivey School of Business, increased to 59.7 in December from 57.2 in November.