Cambodia Economic Forecast

Cambodia Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

While hard data is limited, the economy likely remained robust at the start of 2019. Strong garment and footwear exports, a flourishing tourism sector, and brisk construction should have underpinned growth in Q1. On the other hand, an El Niño-induced dry spell is hampering hydroelectric generation and likely also weighing on agricultural output. While surging construction activity connected to Chinese investment is partly to blame, energy shortages could negatively impact investment and business activity. Meanwhile, the country broke ground on a USD 2 billion Chinese-funded highway in late March. Set for completion in 2023, the project should boost investment and construction in the short-term and facilitate greater trade in the long-term.

Cambodia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to moderate slightly this year. Slowing growth in China and the U.S. will likely taper trade and tourist arrivals. Moreover, weaker investment and the government’s tighter fiscal stance could also drag on growth. A potential withdrawal of preferential market treatment in the EU or the U.S. is the main risk to the outlook. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 6.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecasts, and 6.5% in 2020.

Cambodia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.115.315.515.816.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,0241,0961,1611,269-  
GDP (USD bn)15.516.818.120.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.47.17.07.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.1-1.6-1.7-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.434.132.533.735.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.93.91.23.02.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.341.421.421.441.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,9704,0504,0203,9904,025
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,0074,0114,0384,0364,030
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.9-9.9-9.4-8.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.0-1.7-1.7-1.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-3.2-3.5-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)6.67.58.59.3-  
Imports (USD billion)9.811.712.012.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)16.713.614.09.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)20.49.112.16.0-  
International Reserves (USD)4.55.66.98.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)46.247.351.751.1-  

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Cambodia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate4,0460.05 %May 13

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