Cambodia Economic Forecast

Cambodia Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

The economy likely performed well last year, with garment exports growing robustly in the first nine months of 2018. At the same time, however, the trade deficit widened annually by over a third owing to higher import growth. Consequently, the current account deficit increased notably in the period, while the external debt ratio as percentage of GDP increased compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Meanwhile, momentum in the tourism sector carried through into the final quarter of 2018, with air travel data showing that passenger arrivals increased by a fifth over the previous year.

Cambodia Economic Growth

The garment and tourism sectors are expected to drive the economy this year, further fueled by Chinese fixed investment and public consumption. Nevertheless, Cambodia could lose its preferential market access to the EU, which would hurt the garment sector, while the slowdown in China could affect tourist arrivals. Our panelists expect the economy to expand 6.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% in 2020.

Cambodia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.115.315.515.816.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,0241,0961,1611,269-  
GDP (USD bn)15.516.818.120.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.47.17.07.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.1-1.6-1.7-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.434.132.533.735.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.93.91.23.02.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.341.421.421.441.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,9704,0504,0203,9904,025
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,0074,0114,0384,0364,030
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.9-9.9-9.4-8.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.0-1.7-1.7-1.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-3.2-3.5-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)6.67.58.59.3-  
Imports (USD billion)9.811.712.012.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)16.713.614.09.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)20.49.112.16.0-  
International Reserves (USD)4.55.66.98.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)46.247.351.751.1-  

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Cambodia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3,9430.05 %Mar 11

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