Cambodia Economic Outlook
November 13, 2018Robust growth in tourist arrivals and garment exports through June should have supported economic growth in the first half of the year. However, despite solid export growth the merchandise trade deficit widened in H1 on a surge in imports. Turning to H2, the economy should be supported by greater agricultural production, as the impact of recent flooding recedes. In October, Moody’s confirmed Cambodia’s B2 credit rating with a stable outlook; however, they also warned that the loss of preferential market access to the EU would dent Cambodia’s growth path and, thus, its credit rating.
Cambodia Economic GrowthThe tourism sector and robust garment exports should continue to support economic growth next year. Healthy fixed investment—partly reflecting government infrastructure expenditure and Chinese FDI—will likely buttress the economy further. The likely loss of preferential market access to the EU is a downside risk. Our panelists expect the economy to expand 6.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% in 2020.
Cambodia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,024||1,096||1,161||1,269||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||15.5||16.8||18.1||20.0||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.4||7.1||7.0||7.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-2.1||-1.1||-1.6||-1.7||-3.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||35.4||34.1||32.5||33.7||35.1|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.9||3.9||1.2||3.0||2.9|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.34||1.42||1.42||1.44||1.53|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||3,970||4,050||4,020||3,990||4,025|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||4,007||4,011||4,038||4,036||4,030|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-12.9||-9.9||-9.4||-8.9||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.0||-1.7||-1.7||-1.8||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-3.2||-3.2||-3.5||-3.4||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||6.6||7.5||8.5||9.3||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||9.8||11.7||12.0||12.7||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||16.7||13.6||14.0||9.1||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||20.4||9.1||12.1||6.0||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||4.5||5.6||6.9||8.4||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||46.2||47.3||51.7||51.1||-|
5 years of Cambodia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||4,031||0.05 %||Nov 15|
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