Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

Preliminary national accounts data revealed the economy ended 2018 on a somewhat soft note, with annual growth in the fourth quarter matching the relatively weak showing of the previous quarter. Domestic demand lost traction in Q4, with consumer spending likely weighed on by moderating wage growth throughout the quarter. External metrics fared better, however, as exports of goods and services rebounded after declining in the previous two quarters, propping up the overall expansion. Meanwhile, survey-based data points to soft dynamics carrying over into 2019: Economic sentiment weakened in January and February, with consumers turning more pessimistic and confidence in the retail trade sector deteriorating in both months, boding ill for household spending gains in Q1.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

Growth is seen remaining steady and healthy this year. Solid private consumption growth, propped up by rising wages, coupled with strong capital spending, aided by increased absorption of EU structural funds, should underpin economic activity overall. A greater-than-expected slowdown in global trade and in key trading partner growth cloud the outlook, however. Met the why particular analysts project growth of 3.3% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Bulgaria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.27.27.17.1
GDP per capita (EUR)5,7845,9376,3306,7767,141
GDP (EUR bn)41.942.845.348.150.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.91.33.63.93.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.52.74.33.54.8
Investment (annual variation in %)0.33.42.7-6.63.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.21.82.92.73.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.811.211.86.13.7
Unemployment Rate11.811.711.08.07.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-5.5-1.60.20.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.027.026.029.025.4
Money (annual variation in %)9.01.28.87.67.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.6-0.9-0.40.12.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.4-1.6-1.1-1.31.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.3-0.9-1.7-2.94.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.020.020.010.00.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)42.36.2-11.727.215.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.10.02.34.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.50.00.01.12.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.9-2.8-2.6-1.0-2.1
Exports (EUR billion)21.221.021.923.125.8
Imports (EUR billion)24.223.824.524.127.8
Exports (annual variation in %)7.8-0.94.25.411.5
Imports (annual variation in %)2.0-1.43.1-1.815.5
International Reserves (EUR)14.416.620.323.923.7
External Debt (% of GDP)88.091.974.071.166.0

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Bulgaria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.740.0 %Mar 11
Exchange Rate1.74-0.72 %Mar 11
Stock Market584-0.35 %Mar 11

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