Bulgaria Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019Available fourth-quarter metrics have been upbeat on the heels of a disappointing third-quarter outturn, which was held back by a fall in exports. Retail sales and industrial output each notched improvement in October and, despite deteriorating economic sentiment into November, hint that domestic demand remained in the driver’s seat through year-end. Furthermore, labor-market dynamics remain tight and inflation finally appears to be moderating, which should continue underpinning growth within the domestic economy in the year ahead. All this follows an underwhelming third quarter during which fixed investment stood out for its decent absorption of EU-linked structural funding and the external sector was hit by neighboring Turkey’s economic crisis. In early January, the Ministry of Finance projected a modest fiscal surplus for 2018 that landed roughly in line with Consensus; analysts, however, are less rosy on 2019 and have penciled in a deficit in light of upcoming European and local elections.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthHousehold spending is expected to moderate this year amid slower employment growth and elevated inflation, although election-year fiscal policy should cushion the cool-off somewhat. Fixed investment, meanwhile, should benefit from cheap borrowing costs and above-average absorption rates of EU funds. On the other hand, a pullback in global trade is likely to curb export growth, as is weaker external demand from the EU and Turkey. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.
Bulgaria Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.85||0.0 %||Jan 21|
|Exchange Rate||1.72||-0.72 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||568||-0.35 %||Jan 21|
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Bulgaria Economic News
January 15, 2019
Consumer prices remained unchanged from the previous month in December, following a 0.1% month-on-month dip in November.
January 11, 2019
Industrial output rose 1.2% in working day-adjusted annual terms in November, matching the revised 1.2% year-on-year expansion logged in October (previously reported: +1.6% year-on-year).
December 12, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.1% from a month earlier in November, following a 0.7% month-on-month rise in October.
December 11, 2018
Industrial output rose 1.6% in working day-adjusted terms and on an annual basis in October, contrasting the revised 0.4% year-on-year contraction logged in September (previously reported: -0.8% year-on-year).
December 7, 2018
According to a more comprehensive estimate released by the Statistical Institute, the economy grew 3.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms and on an annual basis in the third quarter, a notch above the preliminary estimate but below the second quarter’s reading (Q2: +3.4 year-on-year s.a.).