Brunei Economic Forecast

Brunei Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

Despite still-high oil prices, the economy contracted for the first time in over one year in the second quarter. GDP fell 2.8% on an annual basis in Q2, contrasting the first quarter’s 2.6% rise, owing to a plunge in oil and gas activities. That said, oil and gas production recovered in the third quarter, while prices for the commodities remained elevated. Export growth for July and August was above 11%, suggesting that the economic contraction will be short-lived. Moreover, household spending and investment were robust in Q2, corroborating that the recovery remains firmly in place.

Brunei Economic Growth

Higher prices for oil and liquified natural gas will continue to buffer economic growth in Brunei further down the road. The economy will also benefit from the government’s diversification efforts and new energy projects coming on line. The panel expects GDP to expand 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Brunei Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.40.4
GDP per capita (USD)44,67541,59931,00726,958-  
GDP (USD bn)18.117.112.911.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.1-2.3-0.6-2.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.76.96.96.96.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)13.03.6-14.5-21.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)2.23.23.03.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.4-0.2-0.4-0.7-0.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.505.505.505.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.661.681.531.531.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.741.601.541.521.60
Current Account (% of GDP)20.930.716.09.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.85.32.11.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.86.93.12.6-  
Exports (USD billion)11.411.56.45.2-  
Imports (USD billion)3.63.63.22.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.0-8.2-39.5-17.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.1-0.4-11.3-17.3-  
International Reserves (USD)3.43.53.23.3-  

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Brunei Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.370.0 %Dec 11

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