Brunei Economic Forecast

Brunei Economic Outlook

October 16, 2018

Although hard data for the third quarter is limited, the economy likely continued to expand at a solid pace thanks to the recent surge in crude oil prices, which have increased markedly over the course of this year. Moreover, fixed investment should have remained a main driver of growth as higher oil prices encourage improvements in gas and oil extraction capacity. Meanwhile, the government’s diversification measures are likely bolstering non-oil sectors, such as the halal industry, agriculture, biomedicine, and tourism.

Brunei Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to accelerate notably in 2019, buttressed by higher oil prices, new energy projects coming on line and the government’s diversification efforts. Nevertheless, continued over-reliance on the hydrocarbon sector remains a risk to the long-term outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 3.8% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Brunei Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)44,67541,59931,00726,958-  
GDP (USD bn)  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.1-2.3-0.6-2.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)13.03.6-14.5-21.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.4-0.2-0.4-0.7-0.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.505.505.505.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.661.681.531.531.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.741.601.541.521.60
Current Account (% of GDP)20.930.716.09.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)  
Trade Balance (USD billion)  
Exports (USD billion)11.411.56.45.2-  
Imports (USD billion)  
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.0-8.2-39.5-17.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.1-0.4-11.3-17.3-  
International Reserves (USD)  

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Brunei Facts

Exchange Rate1.380.0 %Oct 18

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