Brunei Economic Forecast

Brunei Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

Recent government data shows that the economy hit its stride in the fourth quarter of 2017, recording 5.2% year-on-year growth. This marked a sharp acceleration from Q3’s measly expansion. Growth in the fourth quarter was underpinned by a booming hydrocarbon sector, on a surge in LNG and methanol production, and higher oil prices. However, growth in the non-oil and gas sector was almost flat, despite government diversification efforts. The continued rise in oil prices so far this year, coupled with constrained public spending as set out in the FY 2018–2019 budget, should help narrow the gaping budget deficit.

Brunei Economic Growth

The economy should continue to strengthen this year, thanks to a stronger energy sector and as the government’s diversification efforts bear fruit. However, vulnerability to commodity price swings remains a downward risk to the outlook. Panelists expect GDP to expand 1.4% in 2018, down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. They foresee a 4.0% expansion in 2019.

Brunei Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.40.4
GDP per capita (USD)44,56741,56131,00726,958-  
GDP (USD bn)18.117.112.911.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.1-2.4-0.6-2.5-  
Unemployment Rate1.71.71.92.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)13.03.6-14.5-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)2.23.23.0-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.4-0.2-0.4-0.7-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.505.505.505.50-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.661.681.531.53-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.741.601.541.52-  
Current Account (% of GDP)20.930.716.0-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.85.32.1-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.86.93.12.2-  
Exports (USD billion)11.411.56.34.9-  
Imports (USD billion)3.63.63.22.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.0-8.2-39.7-23.0-  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.1-0.4-11.1-17.4-  
International Reserves (USD)3.43.53.23.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  

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Brunei Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.330.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.330.0 %May 21

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