Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

Incoming data suggests Brazil’s economic recovery continued in the fourth quarter, after growth jumped in the third quarter. Returning confidence in the economy is expected to have buttressed momentum, with business and consumer sentiment edging up in December. In addition, the three-month rolling unemployment rate fell to an over two-year low in November, boding well for household consumption, and export growth accelerated in Q4. Jair Bolsonaro was sworn in as president on 1 January, taking the reins of Brazil’s economy. The government is expected to focus on cutting Brazil’s bloated fiscal accounts as its first major priority, with critical social security reform likely to be presented in the coming days. However, conflicting media statements by members of the government are generating confusion over how bold the measures will be. The country is expected to have recorded a sizable 7.1% of GDP fiscal deficit last year.

Brazil Economic Growth

Growth is seen gaining steam in 2019 as household spending and investment growth pick up pace. Recovering sentiment, accommodative monetary policy and a tightening labor market should buttress the domestic economy. The execution of market-friendly reforms remains critical to the recovery, and if strong and quick measures are not passed it could dent sentiment and hurt Brazil’s outlook. GDP is seen growing 2.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Brazil Economy Data

Population (million)201203204206208
GDP per capita (USD)12,27812,1168,7858,7209,896
GDP (USD bn)2,4682,4551,7961,7972,055
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.00.5-3.5-3.51.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.70.3-6.3-5.10.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.52.3-3.2-4.31.0
Investment (annual variation in %)5.8-4.2-13.9-11.3-1.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.1-3.0-8.3-6.42.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.32.2-4.4-6.32.1
Unemployment Rate7.16.88.511.512.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-6.0-11.2-9.0-7.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.556.365.570.074.0
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.96.411.76.32.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0011.7514.2513.757.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-15.5-2.9-13.338.926.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.362.663.963.253.31
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.162.353.343.483.19
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-4.2-3.3-1.3-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-74.8-114.2-59.4-23.5-9.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.3-4.019.747.767.1
Exports (USD billion)242225191185218
Imports (USD billion)211229171138151
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.2-7.0-15.1-3.117.6
Imports (annual variation in %)7.4-4.4-25.2-19.89.6
International Reserves (USD)359364356365374
External Debt (% of GDP)12.714.418.618.015.1

Sample Report

5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.


Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.


Brazil Facts

Bond Yield9.04-0.82 %Jan 21
Exchange Rate3.76-0.13 %Jan 21
Stock Market96,011-0.11 %Jan 21

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Brazil Economic News

Search form