Brazil Economic Outlook
May 14, 2019The economy is expected to have disappointed again in the first quarter, after a feeble end to 2018. Economic activity, a GDP proxy, dropped in both January and February—raising the risk that GDP growth stumbled in Q1. Industrial output fell at the fastest pace in over two years, in part due to halts in iron ore production. More broadly, a less favorable external environment is also dampening activity and exports fell in Q1. Monthly data for Q2 is also soft: Consumer confidence and the manufacturing PMI slid in April. Against this backdrop, the government is under increasing pressure to move quickly with reforms. The critical pension reform made it through an initial first vote at the end of April; however, it still needs to clear multiple hurdles, including a special committee and votes in both houses of parliament. On 30 April, the government announced some minor measures aimed at reducing bureaucracy.
Brazil Economic GrowthGrowth is seen staying tepid this year, plagued by a challenging environment both at home and abroad. While improved sentiment and accommodative monetary policy should help fuel a modest acceleration, reform uncertainty and subdued external demand will limit the uptick. An inflow of weak data led our panel to downgrade Brazil’s growth outlook for a third month in May. Met the why particular analysts project growth of 1.8% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||8.90||-0.82 %||May 13|
|Exchange Rate||3.99||-0.13 %||May 13|
|Stock Market||91,727||-0.11 %||May 13|
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Brazil Economic News
May 15, 2019
In March, economic activity decreased 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity.
May 11, 2019
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) increased 0.3% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in March, a mild increase from February’s flat growth.
May 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.57% in April over the previous month, a softer gain than March’s 0.75% increase and undershooting expectations of a larger 0.68% rise.
May 9, 2019
At its 7–8 May meeting, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) unanimously decided to keep the benchmark SELIC interest rate at its record low of 6.50%, where it has rested since the Central Bank paused its long and aggressive easing cycle in March 2018.
May 3, 2019
Industrial production plunged 1.3% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in March, the largest contraction since September 2018.