Brazil Economic Outlook
January 15, 2019Incoming data suggests Brazil’s economic recovery continued in the fourth quarter, after growth jumped in the third quarter. Returning confidence in the economy is expected to have buttressed momentum, with business and consumer sentiment edging up in December. In addition, the three-month rolling unemployment rate fell to an over two-year low in November, boding well for household consumption, and export growth accelerated in Q4. Jair Bolsonaro was sworn in as president on 1 January, taking the reins of Brazil’s economy. The government is expected to focus on cutting Brazil’s bloated fiscal accounts as its first major priority, with critical social security reform likely to be presented in the coming days. However, conflicting media statements by members of the government are generating confusion over how bold the measures will be. The country is expected to have recorded a sizable 7.1% of GDP fiscal deficit last year.
Brazil Economic GrowthGrowth is seen gaining steam in 2019 as household spending and investment growth pick up pace. Recovering sentiment, accommodative monetary policy and a tightening labor market should buttress the domestic economy. The execution of market-friendly reforms remains critical to the recovery, and if strong and quick measures are not passed it could dent sentiment and hurt Brazil’s outlook. GDP is seen growing 2.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
Brazil Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||9.04||-0.82 %||Jan 21|
|Exchange Rate||3.76||-0.13 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||96,011||-0.11 %||Jan 21|
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Brazil Economic News
January 17, 2019
In November, economic activity increased 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).
January 11, 2019
The Brazilian real strengthened notably at the start of 2019, bolstered by market optimism over the new government and reform prospects.
January 7, 2019
Industrial production rebounded in November, after four consecutive monthly contractions.
January 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.15% in December over the previous month, contrasting November’s 0.21% drop.
January 2, 2019
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector were nearly unchanged in December, ending the year on a solid note.