Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

Relatively weak momentum seemed to have persisted in the final stretch of 2018, after growth slowed to a one-year low in the third quarter due to a contraction in mining output. Growth of bank lending to households moderated in October–November compared to the Q3 average which, coupled with higher inflationary pressures in Q4, likely dragged on consumer spending gains. On the external front, merchandise exports plunged in November due to significantly lower shipments of diamonds, which led to the largest monthly trade deficit in over six years. This follows similarly disappointing trade metrics in October, suggesting that the external sector may have weighed on overall activity in Q4.

Botswana Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose some steam this year amid an anticipated slowdown in domestic demand. That said, the pace of growth should remain healthy, underpinned by strong gains in the all-important mining sector. Given the country’s overreliance on diamond mining, however, it remains vulnerable to external shocks. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.

Botswana Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,0287,8796,9537,2988,051
GDP (USD bn)14.616.614.815.717.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.34.1-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)5.63.7-4.6-1.10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.417.316.315.515.6
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.507.506.005.505.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.789.5111.2511.689.83
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.118.9811.1411.8911.34
Current Account (% of GDP)7.613.25.613.712.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.10.8-
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)34.011.8-25.714.6-19.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.60.7-11.0-17.2-14.4
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)16.315.415.013.4-  

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Botswana Facts

Bond Yield4.940.23 %Mar 11
Exchange Rate11.72-0.31 %Mar 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Mar 11

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