Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Fourth-quarter growth ticked up (Q4 2018: +4.1% year-on-year) on a jump in mining output, which helped lift full-year growth to a five-year high. Dismissing the frayed economic backdrop, diamond sales remained upbeat. Tourism, on the other hand, witnessed a rare pullback despite the recent easing of travel restrictions. Domestically, a steep import bill coincided with stronger manufacturing gains and improved economic sentiment. More recently, available first-quarter indicators hint at an export-led slowdown at the outset of the year; robust private-sector lending suggests any external-sector setbacks might be offset, however.

Botswana Economic Growth

Full-year growth is expected to moderate this year but should nonetheless remain buoyant—in line with resilient household spending. Botswana’s highly-open economy will remain vulnerable to external-sector shocks, but analysts remain optimistic that the diamond trade, as well as tourism, will hold up well amid any global economic slowdown. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 4.1% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 3.9% in 2020.

Botswana Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,0287,8796,9537,2988,051
GDP (USD bn)14.616.614.815.717.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.34.1-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)5.63.7-4.6-1.10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.417.316.315.515.6
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.507.506.005.505.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.789.5111.2511.689.83
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.118.9811.1411.8911.34
Current Account (% of GDP)7.613.25.613.712.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.10.8-
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)34.011.8-25.714.6-19.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.60.7-11.0-17.2-14.4
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)16.315.415.013.4-  

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Botswana Facts

Bond Yield5.040.23 %May 13
Exchange Rate11.70-0.31 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 09

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