Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

The most recent economic data suggests that the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina grew at a broadly steady pace in the first quarter after expanding robustly in the fourth quarter of 2017. Growth in exports in the January-to-March period expanded at a double-digit rate. In addition, increased tourist arrivals, as the country establishes itself as a tourist hotspot, are further strengthening the external sector. The domestic economy performed equally well, with industrial production expanding at a brisk pace in February on the back of increased energy production and consumer goods output. Registered unemployment dropped notably in the same month, boding well for private consumption growth in the quarter.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Declining unemployment and sizeable remittance inflows should support strong growth in private consumption this year and next. Public infrastructure spending should benefit from increased multilateral support, which is expected to further buoy the economy. Our panel sees GDP expanding 3.0% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2019, Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to rise 3.2%.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.93.93.93.93.8
GDP per capita (USD)4,5964,8894,1484,287-  
GDP per capita (EUR)3,5363,5713,7233,859-  
GDP (EUR bn)13.713.814.414.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.41.13.12.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.72.71.2-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.411.1-4.1-  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.5-  
Unemployment Rate27.527.527.7-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.7-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.444.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.2-0.4-1.3-0.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.0-1.1-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.85-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.77-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.3-7.4-5.6-4.5-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.7-4.1-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (EUR billion)3.33.43.63.9-  
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)11.03.05.28.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.73.0-2.32.7-  
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.9-  
External Debt (% of GDP)85.274.630,13028,954-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.66-0.65 %May 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 21

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