Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

The economy appears to have slowed at the end of 2018 and outset of 2019. The stalled government formation likely weighed on public investment, while exports fell notably in January after flatlining in December. Nevertheless, the number of unemployed fell throughout Q4, pointing to a strengthening labor market. On the political front, the largest government entity assigned nearly all its appointed delegates in parliament in late February, which should ease political gridlock. Meanwhile, the IMF recently released a report that highlighted the inefficiency of Bosnia’s state-owned firms, noting the public sector remains highly indebted and recommending Bosnia prioritize restructuring and privatizing firms to boost growth.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

GDP should expand at a steady pace this year. A pick-up in consumer spending and strong investment should carry growth. However, political divisions could detract from the government’s reform efforts, while an EU slowdown represents a major downside risk. Our panel expects growth of 3.1% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% again in 2020.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3425,3944,7584,9805,242
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0244,0674,2904,5034,649
GDP (EUR bn)14.514.515.215.816.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.60.23.83.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.41.82.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate27.527.527.7-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.544.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.4-5.3-4.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.6
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.4
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.016.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.411.9
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)27,66627,15228,69927,31727,208

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %Mar 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Mar 07

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