Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

The economy appears to have been on solid footing in Q2. The domestic economy is benefiting from a recovering labor market as, despite remaining above 30%, unemployment fell to a historic low in April and real disposable income increased. Furthermore, the external sector is performing well against the backdrop of strong tourism inflows, which grew at a double-digit pace in the January–April period. Increased tourist arrivals, particularly from Croatia and Serbia, are helping to establish the country as a popular tourist destination. In addition, merchandise exports gained traction in the January–May period, propped up by growing demand from the EU and Central European Free Trade Agreement countries.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

The economic outlook for 2018 and 2019 is favorable. Private consumption is expected to be the main driver of the economy, while public infrastructure spending and foreign direct investment inflows should also buoy growth. Our panel sees GDP expanding 3.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to rise 3.2%.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3425,3944,7584,9805,242
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0244,0674,2904,5034,649
GDP (EUR bn)14.514.515.215.816.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.60.23.83.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.41.82.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate44.943.943.241.739.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.544.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.4-5.3-4.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.6
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.4
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.016.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.411.9
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)76.080.478.165.6-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.67-0.65 %Jul 17
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 17

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