Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

Following the economy’s solid performance in the fourth quarter of 2018, economic momentum likely decelerated in the first quarter of this year. Industrial production continued to decline in March after contracting in both January and February, on a sharp decline in electricity supply and faltering manufacturing output. Likewise, merchandise exports fell in Q1, dragged down by falling shipments of manufactured goods and mineral products. This likely reflects weaker external demand due to the slowdown seen in the Eurozone, its largest trading partner. Nevertheless, retail sales growth picked up in February, suggesting household spending should have remained the key driver of growth in the quarter.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

The economy should grow at a relatively steady pace this year, carried by stronger private consumption. Headwinds from slower EU growth could weigh on the external sector and investment, however, while the delayed government formation and fragmented positions on key reforms could also hinder growth. Our panel expects growth of 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% again in 2020.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3425,3944,7584,9805,242
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0244,0674,2904,5034,649
GDP (EUR bn)14.514.515.215.816.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.60.23.83.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.41.82.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate27.527.527.7-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.544.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.4-5.3-4.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.6
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.4
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.016.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.411.9
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)27,66627,15228,69927,31727,208

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 13

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