Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

The economy appears to be performing well in the third quarter. Merchandise exports grew at a brisk double-digit pace in July on strong demand from Europe. Moreover, industrial production expanded robustly in the same month. In addition, the unemployment rate ticked down to a new historic low in June—although it remains elevated above 30%—which should bode well for consumer spending in Q3. The IMF is expected to complete its second review under the current Extended Fund Facility program in the near-term future. If approved, the country will receive a subsequent tranche of approximately EUR 38 million.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

This year the economy should be driven by strong private consumption, large-scale infrastructure projects, and favorable regional dynamics. Downside risks remain present, however, and political tensions ahead of the general election in October could stall important structural reforms and hinder fixed investment. Our panel sees GDP expanding 3.0% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to rise 3.2%.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3425,3944,7584,9805,242
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0244,0674,2904,5034,649
GDP (EUR bn)14.514.515.215.816.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.60.23.83.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.41.82.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate44.943.943.241.739.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.544.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.4-5.3-4.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.6
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.4
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.016.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.411.9
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)76.080.478.165.6-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.66-0.65 %Sep 24
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 24

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