Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

The country elected a new tripartite state presidency as well as over 500 other government officials in its 7 October general elections. Milorad Dodik, the elected Serb representative, is an ethnic nationalist in favor of an independent Republika Srpska and resistant to EU and NATO membership. Meanwhile, Šefik Džaferovic, the Bosniak representative, and Željko Komšic, the Croat incumbent, hold more moderate views. While the results are unlikely to have much of a short-term economic impact, they could create more political tension and intensify ethnic divisions, which would impede progress on necessary structural reforms. Looking at the economy, annual GDP growth accelerated in Q2, driven primarily by robust private consumption growth.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Economic growth should continue at steady pace in 2019, supported by a pick-up in investment, solid regional dynamics, and healthy FDI inflows. However, persistent political and social tensions and high unemployment are risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 3.2% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Our panel sees GDP expanding 3.1% in 2020.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3425,3944,7584,9805,242
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0244,0674,2904,5034,649
GDP (EUR bn)14.514.515.215.816.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.60.23.83.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.41.82.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate44.943.943.241.739.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.544.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.4-5.3-4.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.6
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.4
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.016.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.411.9
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)76.080.478.165.6-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.73-0.65 %Nov 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 13

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