Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

Economic growth slowed in the third quarter on sluggish household consumption growth and weaker exports. Nevertheless, total investment and government spending picked up in the quarter. Looking to Q4, the economy likely hummed along at a solid pace thanks to declining unemployment and a buoyant tourist sector. On the political front, anti-government protests broke out in late December due to concerns over corruption and the erosion of the rule of law. In other news, in early December NATO agreed to restart a membership action plan with the country, which now must decide whether to take up the offer. While two of the three tripartite leaders support an alliance with NATO, Bosnian Serbs and leader Dodik are opposed.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

The outlook for 2019 remains promising. Job creation, higher remittances and a growing tourism sector should boost private consumption, while FDI inflows will likely drive investment. A fragmented government, however, could stall important reforms. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Our panel sees GDP expanding 3.1% again in 2020.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3425,3944,7584,9805,242
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0244,0674,2904,5034,649
GDP (EUR bn)14.514.515.215.816.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.60.23.83.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.41.82.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate44.943.943.241.739.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.544.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.4-5.3-4.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.6
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.4
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.016.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.411.9
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)76.080.478.165.6-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.72-0.65 %Jan 21
Stock Market0.20.0 %Jan 21

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