Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

May 14, 2019

Economic growth decelerated in the final quarter of last year (Q4: +3.3% year-on-year; Q3: +4.0% yoy). The slowdown was largely owing to a spike in oil import prices, although overall fundamentals remained healthy nonetheless. Household spending powered the expansion, amid low inflation and a tight labor market. Moreover, fixed investment bounced back, seemingly bolstered by new projects in the mining sector, while exports accelerated despite volatility in neighboring Argentina and Brazil. Meanwhile, in April, President Evo Morales made progress on a trade deal with Argentina, which would allow Bolivia to export LNG to global markets through the Atlantic coast, in exchange for importing oil from its neighbor.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Growth is seen moderating this year as a slowdown in neighboring economies weighs on export growth. Bolivia should remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region nonetheless, underpinned by healthy domestic activity. Increased government spending ahead of October’s presidential elections could deepen the country’s fiscal woes, however. Our panel expects the economy to expand 4.1% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.

Bolivia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.911.1
GDP per capita (USD)2,9483,1243,0863,1143,388
GDP (USD bn)30.733.033.133.937.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.85.54.94.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.45.65.83.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.79.95.03.411.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.7-3.4-6.9-6.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.137.011.646.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.717.116.3-3.98.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.23.04.02.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.84.13.62.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.418.007.367.827.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.916.916.906.946.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.966.916.906.916.95
Current Account (% of GDP)2.41.7-5.8-5.7-6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.70.6-1.9-1.9-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.52.1-1.2-1.5-1.6
Exports (USD billion)12.212.88.77.07.8
Imports (USD billion)9.711.79.88.59.3
Exports (annual variation in %)3.65.4-32.2-19.411.7
Imports (annual variation in %)12.911.1-7.8-13.59.3
International Reserves (USD)12.513.211.48.38.2
External Debt (% of GDP)26.727.030.032.5-  

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Bolivia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.93-0.14 %May 13

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