Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

The economy appears to have maintained the fourth quarter’s strong momentum early this year, on the back of a dynamic external sector. Exports soared in the first quarter, driven by higher shipments of natural gas and increased demand from key trading partners, particularly Brazil, which contributed to a notable improvement of the trade deficit. Furthermore, remittances expanded at a double-digit pace in the same period and hit a Q1 record high, boding well for household consumption. Meanwhile, recently released GDP data confirmed the economy finished 2017 on a strong note, bolstered by a healthy performance in the agricultural and mining sectors. Growth came in at a solid 5.2% year-on-year in Q4, which brought full-year growth to 4.2%, among the highest rates in Latin America.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Economic activity is expected to moderate slightly this year but nonetheless remain robust, supported by rising commodity prices and continued high levels of public investment. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 3.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Next year, growth is seen stable at 3.9%.

Bolivia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.911.1
GDP per capita (USD)2,9483,1243,086-  -  
GDP (USD bn)30.733.033.1-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.85.54.9-  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.45.65.83.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.79.95.0-  -  
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.0-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.7-3.4-6.9-6.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.137.011.642.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.717.116.3-3.9-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.23.04.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.84.13.6-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.418.007.367.82-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.916.916.906.94-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.966.916.906.91-  
Current Account (% of GDP)2.40.2-5.8-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.70.1-1.9-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.52.1-1.1-1.5-  
Exports (USD billion)12.212.88.77.0-  
Imports (USD billion)9.711.79.88.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.35.4-32.3-19.3-  
Imports (annual variation in %)12.911.1-8.5-12.8-  
International Reserves (USD)12.513.211.48.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)26.326.629.8-  -  

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Bolivia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.94-0.14 %May 21
Exchange Rate6.94-0.14 %May 21

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