Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

November 6, 2018

Recently-released GDP data revealed the economy maintained robust momentum in Q2, with year-on-year growth holding steady at Q1’s 4.4%. The second-quarter expansion was underpinned by strong private consumption and buoyant exports, which rose at the fastest clip in over three years thanks to higher shipments of zinc and natural gas. Available data also indicates that upbeat activity carried over into Q3. Healthy growth of remittances through August coupled with reduced inflationary pressures likely propped up household spending in the quarter. Meanwhile, on the external front, sturdy growth of export revenues in July and August, largely thanks to higher prices for hydrocarbons and minerals, contributed to a significant reduction of the year-to-date trade deficit from a year earlier.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Strong growth should carry over into next year, supported by firm private spending and continued government stimulus. An improving price outlook for the country’s main exports, natural gas and minerals, should also contribute in narrowing its external imbalances. Met the why particular panelists project the economy to expand 4.2% in 2019, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2020.

Bolivia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.911.1
GDP per capita (USD)2,9483,1243,0863,1143,388
GDP (USD bn)30.733.033.133.937.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.85.54.94.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.45.65.83.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.79.95.03.411.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.7-3.4-6.9-6.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.137.011.646.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.717.116.3-3.98.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.23.04.02.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.84.13.62.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.418.007.367.827.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.916.916.906.946.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.966.916.906.916.95
Current Account (% of GDP)2.41.7-5.8-5.7-6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.70.6-1.9-1.9-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.52.1-1.2-1.5-1.6
Exports (USD billion)12.212.88.77.07.8
Imports (USD billion)9.711.79.88.59.3
Exports (annual variation in %)3.65.4-32.2-19.411.7
Imports (annual variation in %)12.911.1-7.8-13.59.3
International Reserves (USD)12.513.211.48.38.2
External Debt (% of GDP)26.727.030.032.5-  

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Bolivia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.93-0.14 %Nov 13

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