Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

March 12, 2019

The economy grew 3.3% year-on-year in Q3 2018, down markedly from the previous quarter (Q2 2018: +4.4% yoy). Notably, fixed investment contracted on the heels of almost three years of continuous expansion, although a jump in public spending and sturdy private spending cushioned the losses. Moreover, export growth slowed amid lower demand from Argentina and Brazil, while fiscal woes have been mounting. On 1 March, President Evo Morales, hoping to be re-elected in October, launched his universal healthcare plan at a time when increasing external debt is already weighing on international reserves, which are key to maintaining the currency’s peg to the dollar.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Growth is seen moderating this year, although remaining above the regional average, aided by faster household and government spending. That said, fixed investment will continue to lose momentum. Meanwhile, volatility in commodity markets, due to the country’s reliance on exports of natural gas and zinc ore, is a key downside risk. Our panel expects the economy to expand 4.3% this year, which is 0.1 percentage points up from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2020.

Bolivia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.911.1
GDP per capita (USD)2,9483,1243,0863,1143,388
GDP (USD bn)30.733.033.133.937.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.85.54.94.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.45.65.83.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.79.95.03.411.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.7-3.4-6.9-6.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.137.011.646.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.717.116.3-3.98.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.23.04.02.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.84.13.62.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.418.007.367.827.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.916.916.906.946.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.966.916.906.916.95
Current Account (% of GDP)2.41.7-5.8-5.7-6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.70.6-1.9-1.9-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.52.1-1.2-1.5-1.6
Exports (USD billion)12.212.88.77.07.8
Imports (USD billion)9.711.79.88.59.3
Exports (annual variation in %)3.65.4-32.2-19.411.7
Imports (annual variation in %)12.911.1-7.8-13.59.3
International Reserves (USD)12.513.211.48.38.2
External Debt (% of GDP)26.727.030.032.5-  

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Bolivia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.94-0.14 %Mar 20

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