Belarus Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019According to a preliminary estimate for 2018 national accounts, the economy expanded for the second consecutive year, with annual growth accelerating to 3.0% from 2.5% in 2017 amid upbeat domestic demand dynamics. Household spending remained chiefly in the driver’s seat through much of the year, although appeared to slow in the fourth quarter amid rising inflation. To that effect, fourth-quarter growth is estimated to have drastically undershot analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, industrial production shifted into a lower gear in 2018, dragged by cooling manufacturing activity through year-end. On a brighter note, on 18 January Fitch Ratings affirmed a stable outlook on the country’s B credit rating, citing moderating inflation, increased income per capita, despite a still high exposure to foreign currency risks.
Belarus Economic GrowthLooking ahead, the economy is set to continue along the path of recovery this year, albeit at a slower pace due to a broad-based deceleration in domestic activity. Increased inflation and an uptick in unemployment are seen putting a dampener on household spending. Meanwhile, slower growth across Eastern Europe is expected to bruise external sector gains in the near-term. A slowdown in Russia poses the main downside risk as it is Belarus' main trading partner and an important source of financial support. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 2.6% in 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
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|Exchange Rate||2.17||-0.36 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Feb 11|
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Belarus Economic News
February 11, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.9% over the previous month in January, a tad above December’s 0.8% print.
February 8, 2019
At its 6 February meeting, the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) kept the refinancing rate unchanged at an over decade-low 11.0%, in line with analysts’ expectations.
January 17, 2019
Industrial production growth decelerated to 1.3% year-on-year in December, down from November’s 3.1% expansion. Looking at 2018 as a whole, annual average industrial production grew 5.7%, below 2017’s 6.1%.
January 11, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.8% over the previous month in December, up slightly from November’s 0.6% print.
December 31, 2018
According to a second release by the National Statistical Committee (Belstat), the economy cooled in the third quarter on the heels of robust gains in the second quarter.