Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

The economy started the year on firm footing, with GDP expanding a robust 5.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, outpacing analysts’ forecasts and marking the strongest increase in more than six years. Growth was driven by the external sector, which saw exports soar nearly a third in the first two months of the year, a trend that likely persisted in March. Strong external demand fueled a robust increase in industrial production, while healthy domestic demand sent wholesale and retail trade higher. Further buttressing domestic demand was a tightening of the labor market and relatively moderate inflationary pressures, which likely boosted private consumption in Q1. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings affirmed the country’s B rating on 9 April, citing the positive effect of tighter fiscal policy and the expected improvement of the country’s external imbalances. Nevertheless, the reversal of economic and political support from Russia continues to constitute a major risk to country’s long-term growth prospects, according to S&P.

Belarus Economic Growth

Robust domestic demand and a strong external sector are expected to buttress economic activity this year. Household consumption growth is set to benefit from an accommodative monetary environment, while healthy demand from CIS countries, particularly Russia, and the EU should fuel export growth. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2019.

Belarus Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.4
GDP per capita (USD)8,1418,3155,9814,915-  
GDP per capita (EUR)6,0786,0735,3704,426-  
GDP (USD bn)77.078.756.746.7-  
GDP (EUR bn)57.557.550.942.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.7-3.8-2.6-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.94.3-2.4-3.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)9.6-5.3-15.9-16.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.92.0-6.6-0.4-  
Unemployment Rate0.50.51.00.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.21.01.8-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.932.946.947.5-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)15.514.5-0.419.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)16.516.212.011.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)18.318.113.511.8-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)23.5020.0025.0018.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.8-6.6-3.3-3.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-7.6-5.2-1.8-1.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-2.6-2.1-2.6-  
Exports (USD billion)36.535.426.223.0-  
Imports (USD billion)41.138.128.325.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.8-3.1-26.1-12.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.6-7.5-25.6-9.7-  
International Reserves (USD)6.75.14.24.9-  
External Debt (% of GDP)51.450.867.580.5-  

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Belarus Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.00-0.36 %May 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 21

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