Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Growth decelerated in the first quarter as a Russian tax maneuver, which ended cheap oil imports to Belarus and, in turn, a major source of state income, caused export growth to plunge. Moreover, domestic activity appears to have softened, with higher inflation likely weighing on household spending as reflected by slow retail sales growth in the first quarter. Data from April, however, suggests a more upbeat backdrop in Q2: Price pressures softened and retail sales were stable, signaling that the consumer climate may have improved, while industrial production picked up. In the political arena, the government announced on 28 May that it would charge tariffs on oil deliveries returned via the country’s pipeline system. This came after a contaminated supply of Russian crude prompted various European buyers to return their orders and is expected to further cool diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Belarus Economic Growth

Growth is projected to ease this year, restrained by weaker domestic demand. Particularly, increased inflation and higher oil prices are expected to weigh on household spending, while a slowdown in Russia is likely to continue taking its toll on the external sector. Moreover, reluctance to slash government spending ahead of the 2020 elections poses downside fiscal risks. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2020.

Belarus Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,8798,0295,9814,9155,741
GDP per capita (EUR)5,8835,8645,3704,4265,024
GDP (USD bn)74.676.056.746.754.3
GDP (EUR bn)55.755.550.942.047.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.7-3.8-2.52.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.94.3-2.4-3.92.9
Investment (annual variation in %)9.6-5.3-15.9-17.45.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.92.0-6.6-0.46.1
Unemployment Rate0.50.51.00.80.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.21.01.81.32.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.932.946.947.247.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)15.514.5-0.419.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)16.516.212.011.64.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)18.318.113.511.86.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)23.5020.0025.0018.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.951.191.861.961.97
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.891.031.601.991.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.1-6.9-3.2-3.6-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-7.6-5.2-1.8-1.7-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-2.6-2.1-2.5-2.9
Exports (USD billion)36.535.426.223.128.7
Imports (USD billion)41.138.128.325.631.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.8-3.1-26.1-11.724.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.6-7.5-25.6-9.523.3
International Reserves (USD)6.75.14.24.97.3
External Debt (% of GDP)53.152.667.580.473.6

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Belarus Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.07-0.36 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 13

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