Belarus Economic Outlook
April 2, 2019Growth slowed in Q4 2018 on a broad-based deceleration. Fixed investment fell over the quarter, although still-solid household spending cushioned the downturn somewhat. Moreover, weaker momentum seems to have carried over into Q1 2019, with muted wholesale trade growth and high inflation in January-February suggesting a slowing of household spending. In addition, flagging industrial production and falling agricultural output through the first two months of the year likely weighed on growth. On the external front, the current account deficit narrowed to a two-decade low at the end of last year, although exports contracted in Q4 and again in January. In other news, President Alexander Lukashenko failed to negotiate vital energy subsides from Russia in February. Belarus has historically relied on tax-free oil imports, which it then exported at a profit to generate a key source of state income.
Belarus Economic GrowthGrowth should ease this year, restrained by less dynamic domestic demand. Household spending is seen slowing, undermined by upbeat inflation amid higher prices for oil. Likewise, fixed investment is seen losing stride, as the gloomier global backdrop discourages emerging-market ventures. Compounding matters, the Russian slowdown could take a toll on exports. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 2.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.
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|Exchange Rate||2.11||-0.36 %||Apr 12|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Apr 12|
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Belarus Economic News
March 18, 2019
Industrial production grew 0.9% year-on-year in the January-February period, matching January’s result.
March 11, 2019
Consumer prices increased 1.3% over the previous month in February, up from January’s 0.9% print.
March 11, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.4% over the previous month in March, decelerating from February’s 1.3% print.
February 18, 2019
Industrial production growth decelerated to 0.9% year-on-year in January, down from December’s 1.3% expansion, logging the lowest reading in almost two years.
February 11, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.9% over the previous month in January, a tad above December’s 0.8% print.