Belarus Economic Outlook
June 4, 2019Growth decelerated in the first quarter as a Russian tax maneuver, which ended cheap oil imports to Belarus and, in turn, a major source of state income, caused export growth to plunge. Moreover, domestic activity appears to have softened, with higher inflation likely weighing on household spending as reflected by slow retail sales growth in the first quarter. Data from April, however, suggests a more upbeat backdrop in Q2: Price pressures softened and retail sales were stable, signaling that the consumer climate may have improved, while industrial production picked up. In the political arena, the government announced on 28 May that it would charge tariffs on oil deliveries returned via the country’s pipeline system. This came after a contaminated supply of Russian crude prompted various European buyers to return their orders and is expected to further cool diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Belarus Economic GrowthGrowth is projected to ease this year, restrained by weaker domestic demand. Particularly, increased inflation and higher oil prices are expected to weigh on household spending, while a slowdown in Russia is likely to continue taking its toll on the external sector. Moreover, reluctance to slash government spending ahead of the 2020 elections poses downside fiscal risks. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2020.
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|Exchange Rate||2.07||-0.36 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jun 13|
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Belarus Economic News
June 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in May, following flat growth in April, largely reflecting higher prices for non-food goods and services. Inflation accelerated to 6.2% in May (April: 5.5%), moving further above the Central Bank’s 5.0% target.
May 17, 2019
Industrial production grew 2.1% year-on-year in April, accelerating from March’s 0.9% result, owing to stronger production in the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying sectors.
May 13, 2019
Consumer prices were stable over the previous month in April (March: +0.4% month-on-month), with lower prices for services offsetting higher prices for food and non-food goods.
May 3, 2019
At its 3 May meeting, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) left the refinancing rate unchanged at an over decade-low 11.0%, in line with analysts’ expectations.
April 18, 2019
Industrial production grew 0.9% year-on-year in the January-March period, matching January-February’s result.