Belarus Economic Outlook
July 3, 2018The economy appears to have shifted into a slightly lower gear in the second quarter, after growth hit an over six-year high in the first quarter. Economic growth appears to have decelerated for the third consecutive month in May; nevertheless, fundamentals remained strong. Domestic demand was bolstered in the month by higher disposable incomes, and dwindling inflationary pressures were reflected in robust retail sales, which grew at a nearly four-year high in May. Meanwhile, momentum in the external sector persisted into April, following a jump in merchandise exports by over a quarter in Q1, supported by booming mineral exports. Industrial production, however, decelerated to a year-to-date low in May. As both external and domestic demand remained strong, a fading base effect was, however, in part behind the slowdown.
Belarus Economic GrowthStrong domestic demand should prop up growth this year on the back of household consumption bolstered by tight labor market conditions; however, the pace of expansion is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. The external sector will remain strong on waning, but still-healthy, demand from the EU and CIS countries, particularly Russia. On the flip side, Belarus’s strong reliance on Russia, its main trading and political partner, continues to cast a shadow on its ability to reach sustained economic independence in the long term. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.2% in 2018, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2019.
Belarus Economy Data
5 years of Belarus economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1.98||-0.36 %||Jul 17|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jul 17|
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Belarus Economic News
July 16, 2018
Industrial production growth slowed to 5.3% in annual terms in June, a five-month low, from the 6.3% figure recorded in May.
July 11, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.4% over the previous month in June, contrasting the 0.3% decrease recorded in May.
June 20, 2018
On 20 June, the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) decided to cut the refinance rate starting 27 June by 50 basis points, from 11.5% to 11.0%.
June 19, 2018
Industrial production growth dropped to 6.3% year-on-year in May, a year-to-date low, from 7.0% in the previous month.
June 12, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.3% over the previous month in May, contrasting the 0.3% increase recorded in April.