Belarus Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018Available data showed that economic activity continued to lose traction at the outset of the fourth quarter, on the heels of a seemingly marked slowdown in the third quarter. Industrial output growth fell to a 20-month low in October, due to weakness in the country’s all-important manufacturing sector. In addition, agricultural output contracted in October, likely partly due to restrictions on Belarussian milk exports by Russia, which is its largest trading partner. Meanwhile, retail sales growth softened to a 11-month low in the same month, signaling potential headwinds to private consumption growth. That said, the latest survey data was more upbeat, with the seasonally-adjusted composite economic sentiment indicator rising in October on improved optimism in the transport sector and higher confidence in the trade sector due to stronger sales expectations.
Belarus Economic GrowthGrowth is seen decelerating slightly next year, although it should remain healthy thanks to solid household consumption growth propped up by sustained tightness in the labor market. Meanwhile, solid fiscal metrics and a well-managed external position should power the economy in the medium-term, while financial support from Russia should help with debt refinancing. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 2.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
Belarus Economy Data
5 years of Belarus economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||2.13||-0.36 %||Nov 29|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Nov 28|
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Belarus Economic News
November 16, 2018
Industrial production growth decelerated markedly in October, falling to 2.8% year-on-year from 4.4% in September—the lowest reading since February 2017.
November 9, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.5% over the previous month in October, down slightly from September’s 0.8% increase.
October 16, 2018
Industrial output growth rose marginally in September to 4.4% year-on-year from 4.3% in the previous month.
October 11, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.8% over the previous month in September, up from the 0.1% increase in August.
September 28, 2018
Although the economy expanded robustly in the second quarter, it lost some momentum following the strong outturn at the beginning of the year.