Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

According to a preliminary estimate for 2018 national accounts, the economy expanded for the second consecutive year, with annual growth accelerating to 3.0% from 2.5% in 2017 amid upbeat domestic demand dynamics. Household spending remained chiefly in the driver’s seat through much of the year, although appeared to slow in the fourth quarter amid rising inflation. To that effect, fourth-quarter growth is estimated to have drastically undershot analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, industrial production shifted into a lower gear in 2018, dragged by cooling manufacturing activity through year-end. On a brighter note, on 18 January Fitch Ratings affirmed a stable outlook on the country’s B credit rating, citing moderating inflation, increased income per capita, despite a still high exposure to foreign currency risks.

Belarus Economic Growth

Looking ahead, the economy is set to continue along the path of recovery this year, albeit at a slower pace due to a broad-based deceleration in domestic activity. Increased inflation and an uptick in unemployment are seen putting a dampener on household spending. Meanwhile, slower growth across Eastern Europe is expected to bruise external sector gains in the near-term. A slowdown in Russia poses the main downside risk as it is Belarus' main trading partner and an important source of financial support. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 2.6% in 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Belarus Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,8798,0295,9814,9155,741
GDP per capita (EUR)5,8835,8645,3704,4265,024
GDP (USD bn)74.676.056.746.754.3
GDP (EUR bn)55.755.550.942.047.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.7-3.8-2.52.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.94.3-2.4-3.92.9
Investment (annual variation in %)9.6-5.3-15.9-17.45.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.92.0-6.6-0.46.1
Unemployment Rate0.50.51.00.80.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.21.01.81.32.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.932.946.947.247.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)15.514.5-0.419.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)16.516.212.011.64.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)18.318.113.511.86.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)23.5020.0025.0018.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.951.191.861.961.97
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.891.031.601.991.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.1-6.9-3.2-3.6-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-7.6-5.2-1.8-1.7-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-2.6-2.1-2.5-2.9
Exports (USD billion)36.535.426.223.128.7
Imports (USD billion)41.138.128.325.631.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.8-3.1-26.1-11.724.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.6-7.5-25.6-9.523.3
International Reserves (USD)6.75.14.24.97.3
External Debt (% of GDP)53.152.667.580.473.6

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Belarus Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.17-0.36 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 11

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