Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

Growth slowed in Q4 2018 on a broad-based deceleration. Fixed investment fell over the quarter, although still-solid household spending cushioned the downturn somewhat. Moreover, weaker momentum seems to have carried over into Q1 2019, with muted wholesale trade growth and high inflation in January-February suggesting a slowing of household spending. In addition, flagging industrial production and falling agricultural output through the first two months of the year likely weighed on growth. On the external front, the current account deficit narrowed to a two-decade low at the end of last year, although exports contracted in Q4 and again in January. In other news, President Alexander Lukashenko failed to negotiate vital energy subsides from Russia in February. Belarus has historically relied on tax-free oil imports, which it then exported at a profit to generate a key source of state income.

Belarus Economic Growth

Growth should ease this year, restrained by less dynamic domestic demand. Household spending is seen slowing, undermined by upbeat inflation amid higher prices for oil. Likewise, fixed investment is seen losing stride, as the gloomier global backdrop discourages emerging-market ventures. Compounding matters, the Russian slowdown could take a toll on exports. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 2.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.

Belarus Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,8798,0295,9814,9155,741
GDP per capita (EUR)5,8835,8645,3704,4265,024
GDP (USD bn)74.676.056.746.754.3
GDP (EUR bn)55.755.550.942.047.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.7-3.8-2.52.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.94.3-2.4-3.92.9
Investment (annual variation in %)9.6-5.3-15.9-17.45.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.92.0-6.6-0.46.1
Unemployment Rate0.50.51.00.80.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.21.01.81.32.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.932.946.947.247.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)15.514.5-0.419.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)16.516.212.011.64.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)18.318.113.511.86.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)23.5020.0025.0018.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.951.191.861.961.97
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.891.031.601.991.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.1-6.9-3.2-3.6-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-7.6-5.2-1.8-1.7-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-2.6-2.1-2.5-2.9
Exports (USD billion)36.535.426.223.128.7
Imports (USD billion)41.138.128.325.631.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.8-3.1-26.1-11.724.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.6-7.5-25.6-9.523.3
International Reserves (USD)6.75.14.24.97.3
External Debt (% of GDP)53.152.667.580.473.6

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Belarus Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.11-0.36 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Apr 12

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