Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

Growth momentum seemingly held up in recent months, largely on the back of a buoyant industrial sector amid solid domestic and external demand. Despite lackluster economic conditions in Russia—Belarus’s main trading partner—exports accelerated in June, with momentum likely carrying over into July on booming demand from non-CIS countries and the EU. Meanwhile, inflation remained at an all-time low in July and, coupled with high wage growth, likely buoyed private consumption in the month. Meanwhile, in the political arena, President Alexander Lukashenko reshuffled the government on 18 August, sacking the prime minister and other top ministers, following recent corruption scandals. The move, which included naming free-market advocate Sergei Rumas as the new prime minister, was seen by some analysts as a strategic step in preparation for the 2020 elections.

Belarus Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose some steam in the second half of the year, largely due to a high base effect and the spillover effect from economic sanctions imposed by Western governments on Russia. Nevertheless, growth should remain solid and will be bolstered by higher private consumption against the backdrop of lower inflation and favorable labor market dynamics. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2019.

Belarus Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,8798,0295,9814,9155,741
GDP per capita (EUR)5,8835,8645,3704,4265,024
GDP (USD bn)74.676.056.746.754.3
GDP (EUR bn)55.755.550.942.047.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.7-3.8-2.52.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.94.3-2.4-3.92.9
Investment (annual variation in %)9.6-5.3-15.9-17.45.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.92.0-6.6-0.46.1
Unemployment Rate0.50.51.00.80.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.21.01.81.32.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.932.946.947.247.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)15.514.5-0.419.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)16.516.212.011.64.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)18.318.113.511.86.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)23.5020.0025.0018.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.951.191.861.961.97
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.891.031.601.991.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.1-6.9-3.2-3.6-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-7.6-5.2-1.8-1.7-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-2.6-2.1-2.5-2.9
Exports (USD billion)36.535.426.223.128.7
Imports (USD billion)41.138.128.325.631.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.8-3.1-26.1-11.724.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.6-7.5-25.6-9.523.3
International Reserves (USD)6.75.14.24.97.3
External Debt (% of GDP)53.152.667.580.473.6

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Belarus Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.08-0.36 %Sep 24
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 24

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