Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

Strong global growth is propelling demand for Bangladeshi goods. Moreover, a healthy global economy is translating into brisk remittance inflows, supporting private consumption. As domestic demand is boosting import growth, it is adding pressure on the current account. A widening current account deficit has led the taka to depreciate sharply against the USD in recent weeks. Fiscal slippage risks have increased ahead of the general election scheduled for Q4 2018. The accommodation of Rohingya refugees in the east and the decision in June 2017 not to implement a new VAT are also dragging on fiscal sustainability.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

While economic growth is expected to remain strong next fiscal year, challenges remain. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, especially flooding, and subdued foreign investment is weighing on potential growth. Moreover, the government should take measures to diversify the country’s economy, which relies on garment exports and remittances. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.0% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.0% again in FY 2020.

Bangladesh Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)157158160162163
GDP per capita (USD)9561,0931,2201,369-  
GDP (USD bn)150173195221-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.06.16.67.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)12.08.711.813.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-3.9-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.533.933.933.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.716.112.416.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.46.16.15.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.57.06.25.9-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)77.4177.9278.2079.05-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)78.1477.6077.9078.58-  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.60.81.51.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.41.42.93.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.3-6.8-7.0-6.3-  
Exports (USD billion)23.829.830.733.4-  
Imports (USD billion)34.136.637.739.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)4.025.33.18.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.07.33.05.5-  
International Reserves (USD)18.022.127.932.1-  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.720.619.8-  -  

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Bangladesh Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate84.800.14 %May 21
Exchange Rate84.800.14 %May 21

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