Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

The economy has had a strong start to FY 2019, which began in July, after an advance estimate released by the Bureau of Statistics in April put growth at a nine-year high in FY 2018. Remittances increased at a healthy pace in July–August compared to the same period a year earlier, partly due to economic growth in the Middle East. Boding well going forward, the minimum wage for readymade garment workers was set at BDT 8,000 on 13 September. This is up from BDT 5,300 previously and will come into effect from December. Union leaders had hinted at strike action if an agreement could not have been reached.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

This fiscal year economic growth should slow but remain robust thanks to strong private consumption and investment. However, Bangladesh’s vulnerability to natural disasters and the high proportion of non-performing loans in the banking system cloud prospects. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.2% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.1% in FY 2020.

Bangladesh Economy Data

Population (million)157158160162163
GDP per capita (USD)9561,0931,2201,3721,545
GDP (USD bn)150173195222252
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)12.08.711.813.115.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-4.0-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.835.332.432.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.716.112.416.411.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)77.4177.9278.2079.0582.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)78.1477.6077.9078.5881.22
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.3-6.8-7.0-6.5-9.5
Exports (USD billion)23.829.830.733.434.0
Imports (USD billion)34.136.637.739.943.5
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)18.022.427.932.133.2
External Debt (% of GDP)22.720.619.818.6-  

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Bangladesh Facts

Exchange Rate83.700.14 %Sep 24

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