Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

The economy is performing well so far in fiscal year 2019, which ends in June. In July–December, the current account balance deficit nearly halved from the same period a year earlier due to rising ready-made garment exports and remittance inflows. However, the panorama clouded in January as tens of thousands of garment workers were fired after protesting for a higher minimum wage. On the political front, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina indicated in February that she will likely retire when her term ends in December 2023. This followed widespread allegations of corruption after she won her third consecutive term in December.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

The economy is likely to grow at a robust, but slightly slower, rate this fiscal year. Private consumption should continue to be underpinned by remittance growth, while strong government consumption and investment are also seen providing buffers. However, risks of natural disasters, a weak global trade environment and a struggling domestic banking system all cloud prospects. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.4% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in FY 2020.

Bangladesh Economy Data

Population (million)157158160162163
GDP per capita (USD)9561,0931,2201,3721,545
GDP (USD bn)150173195222252
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)12.08.711.813.115.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-4.0-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.835.332.432.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.716.112.416.411.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)77.4177.9278.2079.0582.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)78.1477.6077.9078.5881.22
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.3-6.8-7.0-6.5-9.5
Exports (USD billion)23.829.830.733.434.0
Imports (USD billion)34.136.637.739.943.5
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)18.022.427.932.133.2
External Debt (% of GDP)22.720.619.818.6-  

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Bangladesh Facts

Exchange Rate83.830.14 %Mar 11

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