Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

The economy has performed well so far in FY 2019, which started in July. Remittances increased at a healthy annual pace in July–October, and these inflows have helped to reduce external imbalances, as reflected by a significant year-on-year narrowing of the current account deficit in July–August. Violence at the general elections scheduled for 30 December, however, could possibly disrupt economic activity, as it did in 2014. On 7 November, the ruling Awami League rejected the idea of a caretaker government being put in place prior to the elections, as demanded by the main opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

This fiscal year, economic growth is likely to slow but remain robust due to strong private consumption and investment. However, an uncertain political environment, risks of natural disasters, a shaky global trade environment and a struggling domestic banking system all cloud prospects. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.3% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in FY 2020.

Bangladesh Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)157158160162163
GDP per capita (USD)9561,0931,2201,3721,545
GDP (USD bn)150173195222252
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.06.16.67.17.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)12.08.711.813.115.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-4.0-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.835.332.432.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.716.112.416.411.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.36.16.15.05.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.57.06.25.55.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)77.4177.9278.2079.0582.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)78.1477.6077.9078.5881.22
Current Account (% of GDP)1.60.81.51.9-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.41.42.94.3-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.3-6.8-7.0-6.5-9.5
Exports (USD billion)23.829.830.733.434.0
Imports (USD billion)34.136.637.739.943.5
Exports (annual variation in %)4.025.33.18.91.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.07.33.05.99.0
International Reserves (USD)18.022.427.932.133.2
External Debt (% of GDP)22.720.619.818.6-  

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Bangladesh Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate83.780.14 %Nov 15

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