Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

An early estimate released by the Statistical Institute showed that the economy grew at an eight-year high of 7.7% in FY 2018. The acceleration was buttressed by strong global trade growth and remittance inflows. In recent weeks, the government secured USD 2.3 billion from various multilateral organizations and countries to modernize the country’s crumbling infrastructure. Infrastructure investment is a key component of government efforts to achieve the 7.8% growth target outlined in the budget for FY 2019, which started on 1 July. Political opponents and economic analysts, however, argue that this growth target is unrealistic without improving tax collection or increasing the fiscal deficit.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

While economic growth is expected to remain robust thanks to strong growth in exports and FDI inflows, downside risks remain. Bangladesh is vulnerable to natural disasters, and a high proportion of non-performing loans in the economy could hurt credit growth. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.1% in FY 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.0% in FY 2020.

Bangladesh Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)157158160162163
GDP per capita (USD)9561,0931,2201,3721,545
GDP (USD bn)150173195222252
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.06.16.67.17.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)12.08.711.813.115.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-4.0-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.835.332.432.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.716.112.416.411.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.36.16.15.05.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.57.06.25.55.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)77.4177.9278.2079.0582.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)78.1477.6077.9078.5881.22
Current Account (% of GDP)1.60.81.51.9-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.41.42.94.3-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.3-6.8-7.0-6.5-9.5
Exports (USD billion)23.829.830.733.434.0
Imports (USD billion)34.136.637.739.943.5
Exports (annual variation in %)4.025.33.18.91.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.07.33.05.99.0
International Reserves (USD)18.022.427.932.133.2
External Debt (% of GDP)22.720.619.818.6-  

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Bangladesh Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate84.500.14 %Jul 17

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