Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Advance estimates released by the Bank of Bangladesh suggest the economy accelerated this fiscal year, which ends in June, although Consensus Forecast panelists are still adjusting to this new information. The growth uptick has come from a near-doubling in the expansion of exports of goods and services, which contrasts a significant deceleration in imports. This is corroborated by separate monthly data released by the Central Bank for the July–February period. On the other hand, private and public consumption growth have slowed considerably, as has the expansion in fixed investment. Meanwhile, on 4 April, the World Bank said Bangladesh requires large investments in physical capital, human capital and reforms to better enable innovation to become an upper middle-income country by 2031.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

Economic growth is should have accelerated this fiscal year on the back of stronger exports and increased remittances. In the following fiscal year, which starts in July, growth will likely edge down, partly due to a high base effect. Moreover, risks of natural disasters, a weak global trade environment and a struggling domestic banking system all cloud prospects through FY 2020. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.5% in FY 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.3% in FY 2020.

Bangladesh Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)157158160162163
GDP per capita (USD)9561,0931,2201,3721,545
GDP (USD bn)150173195222252
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.06.16.67.17.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)12.08.711.813.115.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-4.0-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.835.332.432.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.716.112.416.411.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.36.16.15.05.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.57.06.25.55.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)77.4177.9278.2079.0582.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)78.1477.6077.9078.5881.22
Current Account (% of GDP)1.60.81.51.9-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.41.42.94.3-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.3-6.8-7.0-6.5-9.5
Exports (USD billion)23.829.830.733.434.0
Imports (USD billion)34.136.637.739.943.5
Exports (annual variation in %)4.025.33.18.91.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.07.33.05.99.0
International Reserves (USD)18.022.427.932.133.2
External Debt (% of GDP)22.720.619.818.6-  

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Bangladesh Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate84.300.14 %May 13

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