Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

The economy got off to a good start in the 2019 fiscal year, which began in July. Remittance inflows increased at a healthy annual pace in July–October, which helped to reduce external imbalances as reflected by a significant year-on-year narrowing of the current account deficit in July–September. On the political front, the Bangladesh National Party, the main opposition to the ruling Awami League Party, announced in early November that it will participate in the general elections scheduled for 30 December. They boycotted the previous elections in 2014, which proved violent and were criticized as unfair by many. Meanwhile, the U.S. government will send observers to monitor the elections and make funding available for other domestic observers, too.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

Economic growth is likely to slow this fiscal year, although should remain robust due to strong private consumption and investment. However, political uncertainty, long-standing risks of natural disasters, a shaky global trade environment and a struggling domestic banking system all cloud prospects. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.3% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in FY 2020.

Bangladesh Economy Data

Population (million)157158160162163
GDP per capita (USD)9561,0931,2201,3721,545
GDP (USD bn)150173195222252
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)12.08.711.813.115.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-4.0-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.835.332.432.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.716.112.416.411.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)77.4177.9278.2079.0582.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)78.1477.6077.9078.5881.22
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.3-6.8-7.0-6.5-9.5
Exports (USD billion)23.829.830.733.434.0
Imports (USD billion)34.136.637.739.943.5
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)18.022.427.932.133.2
External Debt (% of GDP)22.720.619.818.6-  

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Bangladesh Facts

Exchange Rate83.940.14 %Jan 21

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