Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

July 3, 2018

The economy continued advancing at a lackluster pace in the January–May period: Annual GDP growth came in at 1.1%, marginally below the 1.2% recorded in the first four months of the year, owing to a sluggish oil sector. In this period, the non-oil sector continued to outperform the oil sector. On 12 June, President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inaugurated the long-awaited Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline. The project marks an important strategic milestone for the country as it will carry gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II field to Europe for the first time and is expected to be a huge boon for the oil sector and the wider economy.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

This year, the economy is expected to accelerate markedly thanks to an anticipated rebound in industrial production, higher oil prices, and a recovery in private consumption aided by subdued inflationary pressures. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.4% in 2019.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.49.59.69.79.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,9267,9395,5253,9014,149
GDP (USD bn)74.275.253.037.911.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.82.81.1-3.80.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.8-0.72.4-0.5-3.4
Unemployment Rate5.04.95.05.05.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.614.435.050.7-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)19.06.1-50.233.00.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.6-0.27.514.87.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.41.44.012.412.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.753.503.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.781.561.761.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.791.031.601.73
Current Account (% of GDP)15.913.2-0.4-3.64.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.811.0-0.2-1.41.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)21.418.95.84.26.1
Exports (USD billion)31.728.315.613.215.2
Imports (USD billion)11.39.39.89.09.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.9-11.9-44.8-15.214.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-9.64.7-7.90.4
International Reserves (USD)14.213.85.04.05.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13.615.724.937.2-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Jul 17
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 17

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