Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

September 4, 2018

Recently-released data shows that the economy lost considerable ground at the outset of the third quarter. GDP grew a meagre 0.2% year-on-year in the January-to-July period, down from a 1.3% annual expansion in the first six months of the year. A contraction in the oil sector as oil prices fell in July drove the notable drop. Growth was underpinned by a rise in non-oil activity, characterized by a double-digit surge in fixed investment in the non-oil sector, along with an upturn in industrial production, driven by higher non-oil output. Moreover, exports climbed over the same period, while private consumption likely continued growing at a resilient pace, reflected by a slight strengthening in retail sales.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to pick up this year and next, thanks to higher oil prices and recovering industrial output. Crucial reforms aimed at diversifying the economy and further developing the private sector should also yield higher economic growth. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.4% in 2019.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.49.59.69.79.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,9267,9395,5253,9014,149
GDP (USD bn)74.275.253.037.911.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.82.81.1-3.80.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.8-0.72.4-0.5-3.4
Unemployment Rate5.04.95.05.05.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.614.435.050.7-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)19.06.1-50.233.00.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.6-0.27.514.87.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.41.44.012.412.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.753.503.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.781.561.761.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.791.031.601.73
Current Account (% of GDP)15.913.2-0.4-3.64.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.811.0-0.2-1.41.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)21.418.95.84.26.1
Exports (USD billion)31.728.315.613.215.2
Imports (USD billion)11.39.39.89.09.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.9-11.9-44.8-15.214.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-9.64.7-7.90.4
International Reserves (USD)14.213.85.04.05.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13.615.724.937.2-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Sep 24
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 24

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