Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

May 7, 2019

Growth was sturdy in Q1 2019, thanks to increased petroleum production and improving non-oil activity. Industry was again the star performer, followed by the agricultural sector, which has benefited from a slew of reforms in recent years. Retail sales also gained pace, suggesting that household spending remained resilient; hikes in the minimum wage and minimum pension, enacted recently to appease growing public discontent over rising living costs, should further stoke private consumption. Moreover, export growth soared in the quarter despite a challenging external backdrop. Increased revenues from higher overseas oil sales have boosted the state oil fund SOFAZ, along with bolstering tax revenues. In other news, BP recently announced that it will be leading a consortium of energy partners to expand a vital offshore oil platform in the country, with USD 6 billion earmarked for the project.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is set to gain steam in 2019 on higher natural gas production and healthy non-oil activity. On the demand side, investment should gradually recover on rising investor confidence, while private consumption growth is buttressed by the hike to the minimum wage. Headwinds to the economic outlook arise from slowing global growth and volatility in commodity prices. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,9267,9395,5253,9014,149
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.8-0.72.4-0.5-3.4
Unemployment Rate5.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.614.435.050.7-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)19.06.1-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.6-0.27.514.87.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.753.503.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.781.561.761.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.791.031.601.73
Current Account (% of GDP)15.913.2-0.4-3.64.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.811.0-0.2-1.41.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)21.418.
Exports (USD billion)31.728.315.613.215.2
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.9-11.9-44.8-15.214.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-9.64.7-7.90.4
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)13.615.724.937.2-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 13

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