Austria Economic Forecast

Austria Economic Outlook

June 26, 2018

Economic momentum broadly held up at the start of 2018, despite slowing marginally from the previous quarter. Robust domestic demand, which was supported by elevated consumer confidence and a low unemployment rate, underpinned the solid performance in Q1. Available data for the second quarter, however, suggests a slower pace of growth is setting in. Consumer and business confidence both came down from recent highs in May, with consumer sentiment decreasing for the first time in over a year and a half. Moreover, a sizeable contraction in retail sales in April could translate into weaker household spending. Given the slowdown in exports in Q1, foreign demand has already started easing and easing European growth, global trade skirmishes and higher oil prices will likely weigh on the external sector.

Austria Economic Growth

The economic outlook remains favorable, underscored by strong domestic demand. A tighter labor market should continue to push up wages and, consequently, households’ disposable income. In addition, the government’s proposed tax reforms for 2019 should also boost consumer spending. Our panel forecasts GDP will grow 2.8% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, the panel expects growth of 2.0%.

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Austria Facts

Bond Yield0.550.11 %Jul 13
Exchange Rate1.170.65 %Jul 13
Stock Market3,285-1.00 %Jul 13

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