Australia Economic Outlook
November 13, 2018Economic activity likely softened in the third quarter, although its pace of expansion should have been robust overall. Retail sales expanded only modestly in the July–September period, despite lower inflationary pressures and the declining unemployment rate. A weaker pace of job creation, declining house prices and the high level of household debt likely drove the deceleration in consumer spending in Q3. On the other hand, external demand was buoyant in the third quarter. The trade surplus more than tripled in annual terms in the period, as exports recorded double-digit rates of expansion throughout the quarter on the back of buoyant growth in overseas sales of commodities. Meanwhile, in the political arena, the conservative government lost its one-seat parliamentary majority; it will thus have to rely on the support of six independents after independent candidate, Kerryn Phelps, gained victory in a crucial by-election held on 20 October, replacing former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Australia Economic GrowthThe defeat at October’s by-election is a sign of electoral weakness within the governing coalition, which is lagging behind the Labor Party in the polls ahead of next year’s federal elections. The uncertain political outcome could cool investor sentiment next year, while escalating trade tensions could take a toll on growth. That said, the economy should continue to expand at a solid pace in 2019—even if it softens somewhat as expected—thanks to robust external demand for commodities and sustained business investment. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 2.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
Australia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||2.44||1.47 %||Dec 11|
|Exchange Rate||0.72||0.05 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||5,628||0.08 %||Dec 11|
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Australia Economic News
December 11, 2018
Nominal retail sales growth in October came in at 0.3% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, following September’s revised 0.1% expansion (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month).
December 5, 2018
Australia’s economy slowed considerably in the third quarter, dragged down by a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on 5 December.
December 4, 2018
At its 4 December monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) again left the cash rate unchanged at the all-time low of 1.50% where it has been for over two years.
November 15, 2018
Seasonally-adjusted employment increased by 32,800 in October compared to the previous month, following the revised 7,800 jobs added in September (previously reported: +5,600 jobs) and overshooting analysts’ expectations for a gain of 20,000.
November 14, 2018
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) declined to 4.2 points in October from September’s revised 6.3 points (previously reported: 6.2 points).