Armenia Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019Available data points to mixed dynamics in Q4 2018 on the heels of a disappointing performance in Q3. On a positive note, private lending continued to accelerate on average in Q4. This was thanks to broadly stable inflation and an accommodative monetary policy environment which boded well for household consumption growth. Moreover, economic activity growth gained some traction in November; however, it remained relatively subdued, against the backdrop of snap parliamentary elections. In addition, contractionary fiscal policy seemingly took a bite out of growth in Q4, while exports contracted markedly in November.
Armenia Economic GrowthGrowth should be firm in 2019 amid solid remittances inflows and a recovery in agricultural output. While upside risks to the outlook stem from higher-than-expected FDI inflows thanks to ongoing reforms, a slowdown or reversal of these structural reforms pose a key downside risk. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 4.9% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.8% in 2020.
Armenia Economy Data
5 years of Armenia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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