Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

Available data points to mixed dynamics in Q4 2018 on the heels of a disappointing performance in Q3. On a positive note, private lending continued to accelerate on average in Q4. This was thanks to broadly stable inflation and an accommodative monetary policy environment which boded well for household consumption growth. Moreover, economic activity growth gained some traction in November; however, it remained relatively subdued, against the backdrop of snap parliamentary elections. In addition, contractionary fiscal policy seemingly took a bite out of growth in Q4, while exports contracted markedly in November.

Armenia Economic Growth

Growth should be firm in 2019 amid solid remittances inflows and a recovery in agricultural output. While upside risks to the outlook stem from higher-than-expected FDI inflows thanks to ongoing reforms, a slowdown or reversal of these structural reforms pose a key downside risk. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 4.9% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.8% in 2020.

Armenia Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)3,7203,9663,5743,5693,862
GDP (USD bn)11.111.811.711.711.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.91.0-7.8-1.18.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.0-2.22.5-11.47.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate16.217.819.517.118.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.9-4.8-5.4-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.843.748.756.758.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.9-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.758.508.756.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)115.3463.5482.9482.8483.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)119.6415.9477.9480.5482.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.3-7.5-2.5-2.2-3.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.9-0.3-0.2-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-1.2-0.9-1.5
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)7.93.8-4.416.425.8
Imports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.0-25.10.936.2
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)78.872.183.593.291.1

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