Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

GDP growth slid notably in the third quarter, coming in at 2.7% annually (Q2: +7.5% year-on-year). Contracting agricultural output due to unfavorable weather and plunging mining production were chiefly behind the slowdown. However, the start of Q4 seems to have been more encouraging, with economic activity returning to growth after contracting in September. On the political front, the country is preparing for snap elections on 9 December after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stepped down in October to force a new vote. Pashinyan’s government controls just 9 seats of the 115-member National Assembly, and parties affiliated with him are poised to make significant gains. This should give him support to push through policies that have been roadblocked by the legislature.

Armenia Economic Growth

Firm commodity prices and a recovery in agricultural output should support growth next year. Met the why particular panelists project the economy will grow 4.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in 2020.

Armenia Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)3,7203,9663,5743,5693,862
GDP (USD bn)11.111.811.711.711.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.91.0-7.8-1.18.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.0-2.22.5-11.47.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate16.217.819.517.118.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.9-4.8-5.4-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.843.748.756.758.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.9-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.758.508.756.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)115.3463.5482.9482.8483.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)119.6415.9477.9480.5482.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.3-7.5-2.5-2.2-3.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.9-0.3-0.2-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-1.2-0.9-1.5
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)7.93.8-4.416.425.8
Imports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.0-25.10.936.2
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)78.872.183.593.291.1

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