Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

The economy grew buoyantly in the first half of the year thanks to surging investment and healthy household spending. Tailwinds from remittances from abroad, accommodative monetary policy, and increased lending kept growth strong in H1, despite plunging government consumption due to fiscal tightening. While these growth drivers largely remained in place in the third quarter, growth is expected to have lost steam. Agricultural output plunged in August, in part due to bad weather, causing overall economic activity to slump. On the political front, My Step, the party led by new prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, secured a landslide victory in local elections in Yerevan on 23 September. This signals strong support ahead of national elections expected in the coming months.

Armenia Economic Growth

A recovery in Russia’s economy, firmer commodity prices and healthy domestic demand should drive solid activity this year and next, although growth is seen slipping from 2017’s five-year high. Met the why particular panelists project the economy will grow 5.4% in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Armenia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.03.03.03.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,7203,9663,5743,5693,862
GDP (USD bn)11.111.811.711.711.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.33.63.20.27.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.91.0-7.8-1.18.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.0-2.22.5-11.47.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.32.65.16.812.6
Unemployment Rate16.217.819.517.118.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.9-4.8-5.4-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.843.748.756.758.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.9-3.55.224.828.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.83.03.7-1.41.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.758.508.756.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)115.3463.5482.9482.8483.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)119.6415.9477.9480.5482.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.3-7.5-2.5-2.2-3.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.9-0.3-0.2-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-1.2-0.9-1.5
Exports (USD billion)1.61.71.61.92.4
Imports (USD billion)3.83.82.82.83.9
Exports (annual variation in %)7.93.8-4.416.425.8
Imports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.0-25.10.936.2
International Reserves (EUR)1.61.21.62.11.9
External Debt (% of GDP)78.872.183.593.291.1

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Armenia Facts

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