Angola Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018On 7 December, the IMF approved a USD 3.7 billion credit facility for Angola to support structural reforms pursued by President João Lourenço’s government and help the country restore external and fiscal sustainability. The approval allows for an immediate disbursement of around USD 990 million, with the rest of the funds scheduled to be phased in over a period of three years. The Fund’s decision came against the backdrop of an ongoing recession. Economic sentiment deteriorated again in Q3 and slid to a one-year low as ongoing economic reforms had little impact on boosting confidence in the country’s all-important commercial, manufacturing and construction sectors, all of which remained deeply entrenched in negative territory. Available fourth-quarter data paints a mixed mixture: Angola’s oil production fell again in October from the previous month, although it rebounded in November. Nevertheless, plummeting global oil prices suggest the economy will again finish this year stuck in deep recession.
Angola Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to return to expansion in 2019, bolstered by improving domestic demand and a rebound in oil production. Waning inflationary pressures should prop up private consumption while ongoing economic reforms, reinforced by support from the IMF, should bolster fixed investment. Angola’s chronic dependence on the volatile oil sector remains the key downside risk to the outlook, however. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.
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Angola Economic News
January 18, 2019
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil fell from USD 65.3 per barrel (pb) in November to USD 56.6 pb in December.
January 15, 2019
According to the Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística), consumer prices in the province of Luanda rose 1.5% in December from the previous month, ticking up from November’s 1.4% rise.
January 14, 2019
According to preliminary national accounts data released by the Statistical Institute (INE) on 14 January, the economy remained in recession in the third quarter of 2018.
December 14, 2018
Consumer prices in the province of Luanda rose 1.4% in November from the previous month, unchanged from October’s print.
December 12, 2018
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil fell from a four-year high of USD 82.0 per barrel (pb) in October to USD 65.3 pb in November.