Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

On 7 December, the IMF approved a USD 3.7 billion credit facility for Angola to support structural reforms pursued by President João Lourenço’s government and help the country restore external and fiscal sustainability. The approval allows for an immediate disbursement of around USD 990 million, with the rest of the funds scheduled to be phased in over a period of three years. The Fund’s decision came against the backdrop of an ongoing recession. Economic sentiment deteriorated again in Q3 and slid to a one-year low as ongoing economic reforms had little impact on boosting confidence in the country’s all-important commercial, manufacturing and construction sectors, all of which remained deeply entrenched in negative territory. Available fourth-quarter data paints a mixed mixture: Angola’s oil production fell again in October from the previous month, although it rebounded in November. Nevertheless, plummeting global oil prices suggest the economy will again finish this year stuck in deep recession.

Angola Economic Growth

The economy is expected to return to expansion in 2019, bolstered by improving domestic demand and a rebound in oil production. Waning inflationary pressures should prop up private consumption while ongoing economic reforms, reinforced by support from the IMF, should bolster fixed investment. Angola’s chronic dependence on the volatile oil sector remains the key downside risk to the outlook, however. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.

Angola Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.025.826.627.428.2
GDP per capita (USD)5,4615,6484,3343,722-  
GDP (USD bn)137146116111-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.04.80.9-2.6-2.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.312.73.0-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.63.5-1.9-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.3-6.6-3.3-4.5-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.911.764.679.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.216.111.813.04.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.514.341.926.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.87.311.332.431.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.259.0011.0016.0018.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)97.60112.1135.3165.9165.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.5298.41120.1163.5165.8
Current Account (% of GDP)6.0-2.6-8.9-3.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.1-3.7-11.3-3.1-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.930.612.514.520.4
Exports (USD billion)68.259.233.227.634.4
Imports (USD billion)26.328.620.713.014.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.0-13.3-43.9-16.924.7
Imports (annual variation in %)11.18.5-27.6-37.07.1
International Reserves (USD)32.227.724.424.418.0
External Debt (% of GDP)20.624.731.542.6-  

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Angola Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate309.30.0 %Jan 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 21

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