Angola Economic Outlook
February 19, 2019The economy appears to have remained stuck in recession in the final quarter of 2018, following a disappointing third-quarter outturn which had marked the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction. The country’s all-important oil sector continued to disappoint in Q4: Falling global oil prices wiped off any gains stemming from marginally higher oil production compared to the previous quarter. On top of that, the index of economic activity continued to deteriorate in Q4, pointing to the second largest contraction in nearly three years in November, chiefly due to the poor performance of the oil industry. In a similar fashion, external sector metrics appeared no more upbeat, with exports contracting in November on the back of lower energy shipments. Meanwhile, after securing a deal with the IMF in December, Angola is poised to re-enter international bond markets in the coming months, with a 11-year bond reportedly in the works. This could prove challenging, however, as S&P Global Ratings revised Angola’s outlook from stable to negative on 8 February.
Angola Economic GrowthMet the why particular analysts see growth recovering this year, following last year’s estimated 2.4% contraction. Moderating inflation, a more accommodative monetary policy environment and a more stable kwanza should support private consumption, while ongoing economic reforms, reinforced by support from the IMF, are expected to prop up investment activity growth in 2019. Angola’s chronic dependence on its oil sector remains the key downside risk to the outlook, however. Our panelists project GDP to expand 1.2% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.
Angola Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||313.7||0.0 %||Mar 11|
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Angola Economic News
March 19, 2019
The economic climate indicator (ICE, Indicador de Clima Económico) published by the Statistical Institute improved from minus 16 points in the third quarter to minus 12 points in the fourth quarter.
March 15, 2019
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil rose from USD 59.5 per barrel (pb) in January to 65.2 pb in February.
March 14, 2019
According to the Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística), consumer prices in the province of Luanda rose 1.0% in February from the previous month, down slightly from January 1.1% increase and the lowest reading in over a year.
February 18, 2019
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil rose from USD 56.6 per barrel (pb) in December to 59.5 pb in January.
February 14, 2019
According to the Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística), consumer prices in the province of Luanda rose 1.1% in January from the previous month, down from December’s 1.5% increase and marking the lowest print since February 2018.