Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Growth was feeble in the second quarter after an already weak first quarter showing, chiefly on the back of a marked contraction in the oil sector and slowing industrial production. However, growth should increase in H2 thanks to higher fiscal spending and a ramp-up in oil-sector investment from Sonatrach, with several gas field expansions coming online in the period. Nevertheless, President Bouteflika’s likely bid for a fifth term in next year’s elections is hampering progress on crucial economic reforms, which bodes poorly for Algeria’s non-oil sector going forward.

Algeria Economic Growth

Economic momentum next year should be supported by a new energy law expected for H1 2019, which will likely buoy FDI inflows, coupled with Sonatrach’s large scale investment plan buttressing hydrocarbon output—notably natural gas. A weak fiscal position, high youth unemployment and a lack of economic reforms, however, pose key downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 2.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.

Algeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)38.339.111.011.841.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,4595,4654,1633,9034,114
GDP (USD bn)209214166159170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.83.73.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.43.23.62.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)8.66.45.73.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.2-1.40.61.52.3
Unemployment Rate9.811.611.211.511.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-8.0-16.9-13.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.17.214.919.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.612.911.73.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.32.94.86.45.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.004.003.503.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)78.4287.92117.1111.4114.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)79.6180.60110.4119.4111.9
Current Account (% of GDP)0.6-4.3-16.4-16.5-12.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.2-9.3-27.3-26.2-22.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.40.5-18.1-20.1-14.3
Exports (USD billion)64.460.134.629.334.4
Imports (USD billion)55.059.752.749.448.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.3-6.6-42.5-15.217.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.88.5-11.8-6.1-1.5
International Reserves (USD)19518014511597.9
External Debt (% of GDP)2.52.62.83.4-  

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Algeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate118.8-0.11 %Dec 11

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