Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

The economy accelerated in Q1 after a solid performance of the agricultural and industrial sectors. Meanwhile, renewed efforts by state-owned Sonatrach to woo foreign investors should have reinforced oil-sector momentum in Q2, ahead of the scheduled start of operations at the Touat gas field in H2. The trade deficit was halved from last year in H1 on higher oil prices, but foreign reserves still declined to USD 90bn by the end of May as the import bill remained large. Sonatrach has been in talks with major oil companies to start a trading joint-venture—a deal could reasonably be expected by the end of August—and signed an agreement on 19 July with Italy’s ENI to create a gas hub in the Berkine basin. It also expects to reach a deal with ExxonMobil by year-end to exploit shale oil.

Algeria Economic Growth

Growth should increase this year on higher oil prices and output, aided by fiscal support. An expected new energy law in 2019 should also reinforce medium-term growth, but current monetary financing risks fanning imbalances and inflation. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 2.7% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2019.

Algeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)38.339.111.011.841.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,4595,4654,1633,9034,114
GDP (USD bn)209214166159170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.83.73.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.43.23.62.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)8.66.45.73.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.2-1.40.61.52.3
Unemployment Rate9.811.611.211.511.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-8.0-16.9-13.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.17.214.919.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.612.911.73.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.32.94.86.45.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.004.003.503.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)78.4287.92117.1111.4114.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)79.6180.60110.4119.4111.9
Current Account (% of GDP)0.6-4.3-16.4-16.5-12.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.2-9.3-27.3-26.2-22.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.40.5-18.1-20.1-14.3
Exports (USD billion)64.460.134.629.334.4
Imports (USD billion)55.059.752.749.448.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.3-6.6-42.5-15.217.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.88.5-11.8-6.1-1.5
International Reserves (USD)19518014511597.9
External Debt (% of GDP)2.52.62.83.4-  

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Algeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate119.2-0.11 %Aug 15

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