Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Growth slowed to 0.6% year-on-year in Q4 2017 (Q3: +1.2% yoy) on a sharper downturn in the oil sector due to low output and a strong base effect. Nevertheless, the non-oil economy accelerated thanks to strong construction and industrial sectors. Furthermore, growth picked up in Q1, according to Finance Minister Abderrahmane Raouia. Oil and gas exports were up sharply in January–March, buoyed by rising prices. These dynamics should support the government’s plans to attract FDI to improve its oil infrastructure this year. State-owned company Sonatrach signed an agreement with Italy’s Eni on 17 April, and is in talks with ExxonMobil, signaling an improvement in the country’s attractiveness.

Algeria Economic Growth

Higher energy prices and looser fiscal policy should drive growth this year, while output of natural gas should start increasing at the end of the year. However, monetary financing of the deficit could backfire due to upward price pressures and the country’s low currency reserves. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 2.5% in 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% again in 2019.

Algeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)38.339.111.011.841.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,4615,4694,136-  -  
GDP (USD bn)209214165-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.83.83.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  2.1-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  5.9-  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.2-1.40.6-  -  
Unemployment Rate9.811.611.211.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-8.0-17.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.07.214.7-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)11.612.911.73.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.32.94.86.4-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.004.003.50-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)78.4287.92117.1111.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)79.6180.60110.4119.4-  
Current Account (% of GDP)0.5-4.3-16.5-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.2-9.3-27.3-26.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.90.5-18.1-20.4-  
Exports (USD billion)64.960.134.629.1-  
Imports (USD billion)55.059.752.749.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-9.6-7.3-42.5-15.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)6.68.5-11.8-6.1-  
International Reserves (USD)194179145115-  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.61.71.8-  -  

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Algeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate116.2-0.11 %May 21
Exchange Rate116.2-0.11 %May 21

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