Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

The economy likely performed well in Q3. Throughout the period, tourist arrivals surged while merchandise exports grew at a near double-digit annual pace. This comes after a solid Q2 GDP reading thanks to strong private consumption and exports. In late October, the government presented the 2019 budget and accompanying fiscal package, which aims to balance fiscal consolidation with vote-winning tax and spending measures. The government is targeting 4.3% growth, a primary fiscal surplus and a reduction in the public debt ratio, and announced lower taxes on dividends and higher earners, and public-sector wage increases.

Albania Economic Growth

Growth should remain robust going forward thanks to strong private consumption and export growth. However, the threat of drought, which could hit hydroelectricity generation and drive up energy imports, remains a downside risk. Our panel expects growth of 3.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast. and 3.5% in 2020.

Albania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,7143,9534,1334,537
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,4443,5623,7354,025
GDP (USD bn)12.413.611.411.913.0
GDP (EUR bn)9.69.911.311.711.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.82.23.43.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.80.92.62.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.0-4.63.53.37.7
Unemployment Rate17.618.017.314.213.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-5.2-4.1-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)65.670.172.772.370.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.91.61.91.32.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.251.751.251.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)112.2115.7126.1128.3111.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.3-11.8-8.6-7.6-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.8-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.2-2.3-2.6-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)1.10.90.80.70.8
Imports (EUR billion)3.03.13.13.33.6
Exports (annual variation in %)21.8-12.7-17.2-7.511.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.33.9-2.48.09.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.22.92.93.0

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Albania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate119.9-0.56 %Nov 15
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 15

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