Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Growth in Q1 likely continued at a similar pace to in Q4, when the economy expanded 3.4% on the back of solid private consumption and fixed investment. In the first three months of this year, merchandise exports surged, while tourist arrivals grew at a sprightly pace. In addition, the financial sector is looking healthier; banks’ balance sheets continue to strengthen, and Q1 saw robust credit growth. In April, the European Commission recommended that Albania begin EU membership accession talks.

Albania Economic Growth

Growth should be robust this year, thanks to a tighter labor market, stronger public investment and an expansion in private credit. The potential for drought, which could hit domestic electricity generation and increase energy imports, is a downside risk. Our panel expects the economy to grow 3.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month. For 2019, the panel also sees growth of 3.8%.

Albania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)4,3424,5843,9264,129-  
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3413,4563,5243,717-  
GDP (USD bn)12.613.311.311.9-  
GDP (EUR bn)9.711.011.211.7-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.82.23.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.42.7-0.23.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.1-3.911.37.7-  
Unemployment Rate17.118.017.7-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.0-  -4.1-1.8-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.071.877.076.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.91.61.91.3-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.251.751.25-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)112.2115.7126.1128.3-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.6-12.9-11.8-9.6-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.1-1.2-1.1-1.0-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.9-2.1-2.1-2.4-  
Exports (EUR billion)1.71.81.71.8-  
Imports (EUR billion)3.73.93.94.2-  
Exports (annual variation in %)13.24.4-4.92.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.17.3-1.48.6-  
International Reserves (EUR)2.11.92.9-  -  

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Albania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate117.8-0.56 %May 21
Exchange Rate117.8-0.56 %May 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 21

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