Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

The economy likely continued to perform well heading into the third quarter. In July, tourist arrivals surged year-on-year, while exports continued to rise at an elevated pace thanks to strong showings from the construction materials and metals; and minerals, fuels and electricity sub-sectors. On the fiscal front, the budget was in surplus in the first seven months of the year on solid tax revenue growth. Although GDP figures for Q2 are still outstanding, the economy should have largely maintained the healthy momentum from the first quarter. In Q2, consumer credit growth remained in double digits, suggesting private consumption was likely robust.

Albania Economic Growth

Growth should remain healthy going forward thanks to a tighter labor market, brisk wage growth and elevated fixed investment. The threat of drought, which could hit domestic electricity generation and increase energy imports, is a downside risk. Our panel expects growth of 3.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month, and 3.8% again in 2019.

Albania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,7143,9534,1334,537
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,4443,5623,7354,025
GDP (USD bn)12.413.611.411.913.0
GDP (EUR bn)9.69.911.311.711.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.82.23.43.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.80.92.62.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.0-4.63.53.37.7
Unemployment Rate17.618.017.314.213.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-5.2-4.1-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)65.670.172.772.370.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.91.61.91.32.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.251.751.251.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)112.2115.7126.1128.3111.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.3-11.8-8.6-7.6-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.8-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.2-2.3-2.6-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)1.10.90.80.70.8
Imports (EUR billion)3.03.13.13.33.6
Exports (annual variation in %)21.8-12.7-17.2-7.511.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.33.9-2.48.09.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.22.92.93.0

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Albania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate117.3-0.56 %Sep 20
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 20

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