Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

Growth accelerated to 4.5% in Q1. The expansion was fueled by the industry, electricity and water; and retail trade, transport, accommodation and food services sub-sectors. In addition, labor market dynamics were healthy; the unemployment rate declined, while the participation rate rose. Momentum likely largely carried over into Q2. In the first two months of the quarter, exports rose at a double-digit pace and the trade deficit narrowed. However, the budget balance slipped into deficit in the year to May, compared to a surplus in the same period last year. In late May, the IMF urged renewed fiscal consolidation to trim the elevated public debt.

Albania Economic Growth

Growth should remain healthy this year, thanks to a solid labor market, robust public investment and an ongoing expansion in private credit. The potential for drought, which could hit domestic electricity generation and increase energy imports, is a downside risk. Our panel expects growth of 3.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month, and 3.7% in 2019.

Albania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,7143,9534,1334,537
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,4443,5623,7354,025
GDP (USD bn)12.413.611.411.913.0
GDP (EUR bn)9.69.911.311.711.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.82.23.43.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.80.92.62.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.0-4.63.53.37.7
Unemployment Rate17.618.017.314.213.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-5.2-4.1-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)65.670.172.772.370.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.91.61.91.32.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.251.751.251.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)112.2115.7126.1128.3111.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.3-11.8-8.6-7.6-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.8-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.2-2.3-2.6-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)1.10.90.80.70.8
Imports (EUR billion)3.03.13.13.33.6
Exports (annual variation in %)21.8-12.7-17.2-7.511.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.33.9-2.48.09.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.22.92.93.0

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Albania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate118.1-0.56 %Jul 17
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 17

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