Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

April 30, 2019

Estonia’s president approved a coalition government led by the Center Party on 23 April, following the Reform Party’s unsuccessful attempt to secure a parliamentary majority. Although the new government includes the euroskeptic, hardline anti-immigrant EKRE, incumbent Prime Minister Juri Ratas is set to keep his seat and has promised no changes to Estonia’s pro-Western posture. Among the new government’s priorities are revamping the pension system—against the recommendation of the Central Bank—and taking a harder stance on a long-delayed infrastructure project. Moreover, it is set to contest the European Union’s budget rules, which could bruise relations with the bloc. Against this backdrop, growth seems to have lost steam since the outset of the year. Economic sentiment was weak through the first quarter, while industrial output and exports each decelerated in January-February.

Estonia Economic Growth

Growth is set to lose traction this year amid weaker external demand and worsening labor shortages. Nevertheless, the pace of expansion will remain solid as the tight labor market props up private consumption, while EU-linked cohesion funding is set to bolster fixed investment. Met the why particular analysts see the economy expanding 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

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Estonia Facts

Exchange Rate1.120.65 %May 13
Stock Market1,254-0.38 %May 13

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