Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Oil prices rise in April on end of Iran oil waivers and OPEC+ output cuts

May 15, 2019

In April, energy prices increased 7.3% month-on-month, the largest expansion since January 2018 and well above March’s 4.3% increase.

The successful implementation of the oil cut deal led by OPEC and other key suppliers such as Russia continued to prop up oil and oil-related prices in April. Moreover, the U.S. decision not to extend sanction waivers on Iranian oil imports also boosted prices. Along with the potential removal of around 500,000 barrels per day from the global oil market (Iran is expected to have shipped around 1 million barrels per day in April), analysts are concerned that Iran could try to close the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime choke point through which passes about 30% of all oil tankers. On the other hand, natural gas and thermal coal prices plunged in April as the end of winter in the northern hemisphere slashed demand.

Our panelists see energy prices falling 0.4% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 (previous report: -1.9% year-on-year). Although Brent and WTI oil prices will increase in annual terms in Q4 2019, energy prices will be dragged down mostly by a massive base effect in natural gas prices as well as a broader preference for cleaner energy, which will hurt demand for thermal and coking coal. Our panel of analysts expects energy prices to fall again in annual terms in Q4 2020, declining 2.7% on uncertainty over global oil supply and the ongoing downward trend in coal prices.

 

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Brent Crude Oil118.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  54.26  
WTI Crude Oil97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  50.84  
Gasoline2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  1.72  
Natural Gas3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  3.02  
Thermal Coal85.38  70.95  58.88  65.69  88.19  
Coking Coal 147.71  114.66  88.38  142.7  188.92  
Uranium38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  22.06  
Gasoil918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  482.81  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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