Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Energy prices continue to nosedive

Energy prices fell sharply in December on the back of plunging oil prices and a pullback in natural gas prices following a surge in the prior month. Energy prices were down 12.2% month-on-month, following November’s 14.7% decrease.

The oil market was still reeling from the surprise U.S. decision to allow eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil for 180 days following the reintroduction of sanctions in early November, which led investors to fear a supply glut. Moreover, the U.S. and Russia, which are top global producers, continued to pump at elevated levels in December. On the demand side, concerns over the health of the global economy mounted, particularly due to disappointing data from China, putting further downward pressure on prices of oil and its derivatives. On 7 December, OPEC and its allies cut oil production for six months beginning in January, although this move did not give a decisive boost to the market in December. Natural gas prices also dropped following a surge in November, as a period of warm weather in the U.S. reduced heating demand. Softening activity in China appeared to drag on thermal coal prices, coking coal prices edged up, while uranium prices were broadly unchanged.

Our panelists see energy prices rising 1.7% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period of 2018 (previous edition: -3.2% year-on-year), due to a recovery in oil prices as well as a low base effect from Q4 2018. Our panel of analysts expects energy prices to decline in Q4 2020 in annual terms, falling 7.3% on the back of lower prices for oil and, especially, its derivatives.

 

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  118.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  62.96  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.71  114.58  90.93  129.68  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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