Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Agricultural prices rise for third straight month

Agricultural prices rose 2.9% month-on-month in December, coming after November’s 1.7% increase.

Soybean prices were supported by the resumption of sales of U.S. soybeans to China following a reduction in trade tensions between the two countries, while prices for corn and wheat also averaged higher in December month-on-month. Cocoa prices were supported by concern over dry weather in the Ivory Coast, an important global producer, while wool prices ticked up on stronger purchasing activity. In contrast, coffee prices were depressed on a bumper harvest in Brazil, while sugar prices were also limp. The government shutdown in the U.S. means that the U.S. Department of Agriculture—the main source of information on the latest U.S. agricultural developments and an important driver of prices in the market—is no longer publishing key reports, leading to a dearth of data and significant uncertainty.

Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect agricultural prices to increase 5.6% year-on-year in Q4 2019 (previous edition: +11.5% yoy) on solid food demand thanks to the world’s growing middle class. In the following year, agricultural prices are set to continue rising, with Met the why particular panelists expecting a 2.9% increase in Q4 2020 in annual terms.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1188.33  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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