Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Ample supply and trade disputes push down agricultural prices in September

Agricultural prices declined for the fourth consecutive month in September due to ample supply for key commodities and spillovers from the ongoing trade spat between China and the United States. Agricultural prices fell 5.3% month-on-month in September, sharply down from August’s 0.5% decrease.

Wheat prices posted the sharpest decline in September due to expectations of bumper supply. Soybean prices also recorded a sizeable drop as China shifts away from purchasing the commodity from the U.S. to other countries such as Brazil, amid tit-for-tat trade disputes between the two countries. Prices for coffee, corn and cotton also fell in September. On the flip side, wool prices continued to rally on supply shortages and strong demand from China and Europe, while sugar prices bucked the downward trend in the previous two periods due to expectations of low crop yields in key producing countries.

Agricultural prices are expected to recover in 2018 from the dismal performance recorded in previous years. Along with a low base, agricultural prices will benefit from tighter supply. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect agriculture prices to increase 7.3% year-on-year in Q4 2018 (previous edition: +12.2% yoy). Gains in agriculture prices, however, will moderate further down the road and Met the why particular panelists see prices rising 3.7% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1188.33  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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