Global commodity prices post largest gain in over one year in February

In February, global commodity prices consolidated the gains made in January and rose at the fastest pace since January 2018. Global commodity prices expanded 4.7% in month-on-month terms following January’s 0.5% increase.

A tighter global oil market is boosting prices for the black gold and its derivatives, while hopes of an eventual trade deal between China and the United States are propping up prices for base metals. Base metal prices are also benefiting from policy stimulus in China, which consumes around half of all base metals. Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its monetary tightening and slowing global growth continue to support prices for safe-haven assets such as gold. In contrast, agricultural prices have been hit by prospects of bumper harvests for key commodities.

Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists surveyed this month expect global commodity prices to increase 5.5% in Q4 2019 from the same period in 2018 (previous edition: +5.5% year-on-year) on the back of increasing prices for all commodity groups but energy. Poor prospects for natural gas and coal prices are weighing on the overall energy category. Met the why particular panelists expect commodity prices to rise 3.9% in annual terms from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020.

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